102
FXUS63 KIWX 222057
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
357 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN OR DRIZZLE INTO TONIGHT BUT
ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN MID 50S BY MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER ON MIDWEEK PRECIP CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
LOCAL AREA REMAINS POSITIONED IN UPPER LEVEL INFLECTION ZONE THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN BROAD WESTERN CONUS UPPER RIDGE AND LARGE UPPER
LOW ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN HAS MAINTAINED FAVORABLE
NORTHERLY FETCH FOR LIGHT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/DRIZZLE, BUT MOISTURE
DEPTHS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COVERAGE. SOME SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW LEVEL WINDS IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DROPS ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT PRECIP.
ONE POSITIVE FACTOR FOR CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT LIGHT RAIN COULD
BE SOME MODEST INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. HOWEVER BY THIS TIME, FETCH WILL BE FURTHER REDUCED
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL MEASURABLE PRECIP
CHANCES AFTER TONIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY, LOW CLOUDS MAY TEND TO DISSIPATE WITH EVOLUTION TO A
MORE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ZONE OF STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT
OBSERVED TODAY AS CONTINUED MODERATION IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES IS OFFSET BY GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND MORE SHALLOW
MIXING HEIGHTS IN COMPARISON TO TODAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC JET WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EVENTUALLY CARVING OUT AN UPPER HEIGHT MINIMUM
AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. BROAD WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE. SEVERAL
FACTORS STILL SUPPORT HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THIS PERIOD
INCLUDING FAVORABLE POSITIONING TO APPROACHING EASTERN PAC JET
STREAK, MATURING FRONTAL FORCING, AND AT LEAST BRIEF SURGE OF
ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
QUITE PROGRESSIVE WHICH WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME BRIEF,
WEAK LAKE RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS WAVE FOR TUESDAY, BUT
INSTABILITY DEPTHS SHOULD BE ON A SHARP DECLINE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH IN TREND BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE THANKSGIVING PERIOD POTENTIAL PRECIP
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BIT OF A
SPLIT-NATURE OF FLOW ACROSS PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A COMPLICATED
WAVE EVOLUTION BETWEEN SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAMS. WITH SUCH GREAT
UNCERTAINTY IN BUDGETING STRENGTHS OF NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM
AND TIMING DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN FASTER GEFS/SLOWER EPS
NORTHERN STREAM EVOLUTION, HAVE JUST MAINTAINED BROADBRUSH MID-
HIGH CHANCE RAIN/SHOWER POPS FOR NOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT HIGHER IN REGARDS TO CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM EST FRI NOV 22 2024
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ARE BENDING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM KSBN,
AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER, WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
NOTED WEST OF HERE PERHAPS INDICATING A SHALLOW BAND OF LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS. THEREFORE, HAVE RETAINED P6SM -SHRA FOR THE TIME
BEING.
AT KFWA, SHOWERS ONGOING AT THE OFFICE INDICATE SHOWERS WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO KFWA AS THE BAND BENDS EAST. THIS IS IN
CONTRAST TO THE THINNING OF CLOUDS NOTED ON SATELLITE AROUND
KFWA, RESULTING IN THE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF CEILINGS TO THE
TAFS.
WIND GUSTS SO FAR TODAY AT BOTH SITES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL, BUT
THINNING OF CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT GUSTS AROUND THE AREA
RESULT IN A CONTINUED WIND GUST MENTION. GUSTS WILL ABATE
OVERNIGHT AS WILL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...BROWN
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