885
FXUS63 KIWX 230735
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
235 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- IT WILL BE DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES EARLY ON MONDAY AND ENDS
LATE IN THE DAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED IN THE
MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE
WEEK AROUND THANKSGIVING.
- MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER THANKSGIVING;
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY
IN THE 10S AND 20S!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS SUBSIDENCE
RETURNS. WINDS SWITCH FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER
TODAY, WHICH WILL PUT AN END TO ANY REMAINING LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST AS
A RESULT OF WAA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS
WEEKEND, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY, TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ARRIVING TO OUR AREA BY
MONDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S MONDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MID
50S BY THE AFTERNOON, ANY PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN. WAA AND
INCREASES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE IN THE
WEEK AROUND THANKSGIVING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW; IT STILL TOO FAR OUT TO
DETERMINE IMPACTS, IF ANY, FOR THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD. IN
THE PAST 12-24 HOURS, RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE TRENDED
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM, KEEPING IT OUT OF OUR AREA. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN UPCOMING RUNS.
FURTHER COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLIT FLOW
ALOFT IN THE JET STREAM...WITHOUT A SUPPORTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN,
THIS WOULD IMPACT HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES AT THE SURFACE. THE TRACK,
INTENSITY, TIMING, AND PRECIPITATION TYPE(S) WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING WEEK. FOR NOW, WILL STICK WITH
THE NBM POPS FOR THE WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH ARE 30-
50%. GIVEN THE IMMENSE UNCERTAINTY MID TO LATE IN THE WEEK, THESE
POPS WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
WHILE THERE IS STILL A LOT OF BE RESOLVED WITH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
WEATHER SYSTEM, LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A CONSENSUS IN
MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVING AFTER THANKSGIVING. HIGHS IN THE 20S AND
30S ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY IN THE 10S AND 20S! THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK HAS 70-90% PROBABILITIES
FOR COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE
END OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
PATCHY LAKE EFFECT DRIZZLE AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING GIVEN PERSISTENT CYCLONIC NW FLOW AND
MOISTURE-LADEN SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY JUST
ABOVE FUEL-ALTERNATE BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH SOME IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE LATE MORNING.
IMPROVEMENT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SAT EVENING WHEN SOME MINOR DRY
AIR ADVECTION RAISES CEILINGS SLIGHTLY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AGD
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