370
FXUS62 KJAX 171758
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1258 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ONGOING TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND WEAKER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS ARE ALSO ALLOWING TEMPS TO RISE A BIT MORE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, TOPPING OUT AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 70S LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALSO AFFECTS AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE SUNSET. TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING, NEARLY CALM WINDS
AREA WIDE WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TEMPS TO
FALL TO SIMILAR VALUES AS SEEN THIS MORNING, OR PERHAPS EVEN A BIT
LOWER (40S INTERIOR AND 50S SOUTH AND EAST). ONLY FACTOR THAT
COULD LIMIT THIS A BIT WILL BE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. CALM CONDITIONS MAY ALSO
RESULT IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERIOR ONCE AGAIN.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA ON MONDAY, LEAVING
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S TO MID
60S. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY,
INCREASING COLD COVER AND PROMOTING RAIN CHANCES NEAR 20-30% OVER
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AREA-WIDE. TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AHEAD OF THE CHILLY END OF WEEK
TEMPERATURES FORECAST, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 80S OVER MOST
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA, WITH UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY, LEAVING RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THERE WILL BE A
RISK OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLOODING ISSUES, MAINLY
IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD ON
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER AFTER THE FRONT PASSES IN THE EVENING AND WINDS
SHIFT NORTHERLY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT
INTO THE 40S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 60S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
40S INLAND WITH LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, ONLY
A FEW COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL STAY ABOVE 50 DEGREES, HOWEVER THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT, WHERE EVEN THE
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO
AT LEAST THE START OF TONIGHT ALONG WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS. SCT
DIURNAL CUMULUS COULD BRIEFLY BECOME BKN AT TIMES, MAINLY SOUTH OF
SSI, THOUGH HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 030. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, MAINLY AWAY FROM THE
COAST WHERE MVFR AND IFR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. FAIR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY ONCE ANY FG BURNS OFF THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2024
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND APPROACH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY, THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS WILL INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS.
RIP CURRENTS: CHANCES FOR HIGH RIP CURRENTS LINGER AT FLORIDA
BEACHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING MODERATE FOR ALL BEACHES
ON MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 45 75 53 76 / 0 0 0 20
SSI 54 74 62 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 50 77 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 57 76 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
GNV 51 78 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 52 79 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ033-
038-124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ124-125-
133-138.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ154-
166.
AM...NONE.
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