394
FXUS62 KJAX 200156
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
856 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 845 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
WE CONTINUE TO WATCH A BATCH OF RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING
GRADUALLY EASTWARD. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HAVE
TRENDED POPS GENERALLY THE SAME, IF NOT SLIGHTLY LOWER, FOR THE
UPDATE WITH THE SIGNS FROM SATELLITE IR IMAGERY OF CLOUD TOPS
WARMING-- INDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 6-8 HOURS.
STILL, GOOD POTENTIAL FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH SOME OF THE AREAS
OF RAIN MAY BECOME MORE FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED LATER TONIGHT.
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW, WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
BEING CONFINED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TOO
ROBUST WITH THE THUNDER POTENTIAL BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER, USING NBM GUIDANCE KEPT IN SOME LIMITED LOCATIONS FOR A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF WIND GUST OF 30-40 MPH FROM SOME
SHOWERS BASED ON A FEW REPORTS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST GA.
OTHERWISE, MIN TEMPS REMAIN ON TACK FOR THE LOWS IN THE 60S
TONIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WED DELAYING THE PRECIP
CHANCES A BIT FOR MIDDAY TIME FRAME, AS SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FOR THE MARINE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF WINDOW OF ~20-22 KT FOR
1-2 OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES. STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED STARTING WED
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPECTED, AND POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF GALE WARNING NORTHERN
OFFSHORE WATERS.
NEAR TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
INCREASING MOISTURE IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STILL ON TRACK FOR 0.50-1.00 INCH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY OF I-75, WITH LESSER VALUES OF 0.25-0.50 INCHES FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES. STILL TRACKING ABOVE NORMAL LOWS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 60S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT
MAKES IT'S WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN WITH THE HELP OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, DROPPING LOW
TEMPERATURES BY ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES FROM THE NIGHT PREVIOUS.
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA (WEST OF THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER BASIN) WILL SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, WITH THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND ST. JOHNS RIVER AREA STAYING IN THE LOW 50S.
WINDS WILL PICK UP ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT WESTERLY, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE DESPITE SUNNY SKIES.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL AGAIN DROP INTO THE 40S
INLAND, AND EVEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 70S, WITH A SLIGHT GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY. BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AREA-WIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S IN
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS, WITH THE COAST SEEING LOWS IN THE
40S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 40
DEGREES AND ABOVE AREA-WIDE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK WITH VFR CLOUDS AT THIS TIME AT ABOUT 5 KFT
BUT WILL BE LOWERING AS A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/SHOWERS MOVE
INTO THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z, WITH HIGH CHANCES OF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY THE FL TAFS AND BASED ON CURRENT DATA
CHOOSING TO LEAVE OUT (I.E., VCTS) FOR NOW. BUT, DATA SUGGESTS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS DURING THE WINDOW
OF 14Z-19Z, WITH EARLIEST START TIME AT GNV. MOST PRECIP ENDS BY
18Z, WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THEREAFTER TO 00Z. HIGHER CHANCE
OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS WOULD BE ABOUT 21Z-00Z AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER IN ON WEST AND NORTHWEST SFC WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE WITH SCEC HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATEST HREF PROBABILITIES AND HRRR
MODEL SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOSE TO 20 KNOT WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, BUT AFTER
COORDINATION WITH OTHER COASTAL OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY SCA
FLAGS WITH THIS PACKAGE AS THE SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
BACK INTO THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER PUSHES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. OTHERWISE
MODELS STILL ON TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG NW WINDS
AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS DEVELOPING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AND EXPECT SOLID SCA
HEADLINES THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF STRONG AND MUCH COLDER OFFSHORE
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS AND THE MARINE AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HEADLINE FREE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MARGINALLY MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OFFSHORE DOMINATING
THE SURF ZONE AND SURF/BREAKERS FALLING INTO THE 1-2 FT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, WITH MINRH VALUES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20% TO MID 30%
RANGE ON THURSDAY, AND ELEVATED FIRE DANGER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
LAST GASP OF HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN IN
THE PUTNAM COUNTY AREA AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY THIS EVENING AFTER THE LATEST HIGH TIDE CYCLE
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA JUST NORTH OF LAKE GEORGE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 104 PM EST TUE NOV 19 2024
DAILY RECORD HIGHS FOR TUESDAY NOVEMBER 19TH AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
JAX 84/1958
CRG 82/1984
GNV 90/1906
AMG 82/1942
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 76 43 61 / 80 20 0 0
SSI 66 76 49 64 / 80 30 0 0
JAX 66 78 48 66 / 90 40 0 0
SGJ 66 77 51 66 / 70 60 0 0
GNV 65 79 47 64 / 80 50 0 0
OCF 66 79 49 66 / 80 50 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
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