242
FXUS62 KJAX 221203
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
703 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT & EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL
IMPACT AREAS: I-75 & U.S.-301 CORRIDORS & INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. AREAS
OF DENSE FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT & EARLY SUN MORNING
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- EXTENDED DRY SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BE VERY CAUTIOUS
WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS. SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA & THE
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
STRATUS DECK WILL SETTLE TOWARDS THE GROUND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE SCOURING OUT
ANY REMAINING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER FL WILL RETREAT
SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SE US.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
AREA-WIDE. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO INLAND
SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE (POP 15-20%). ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL AND WON'T BRING MUCH RELIEF TO THE CURRENT SEVERE/EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE OUR
AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ELEVATED WINDS WILL LIMIT IT TO
PATCHY COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F ACROSS SE GA
AND LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL. NW WINDS AT 10-15 MPH EARLY IN THE DAY
BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND KEEP ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NE FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED AS LOWS FALL
INTO THE 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED ACROSS
INLAND NE FL, BUT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG NOT ANTICIPATED.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NE FLOW BECOMES
BREEZY AROUND 15G25 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHICH WILL HOLD
MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S, BUT FLOW STILL TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER
INLAND AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR INLAND SE GA AND LOWER
80S FOR INLAND NE FL.
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES LIGHT SE, AND WHILE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, EXPECT LAND AREAS
TO REMAIN DRY WITH PATCHY INLAND FOG EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN WITH
LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVER INLAND NE FL. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TUESDAY...NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS MAX TEMPS SURGE
BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. LOWS ONLY FALL TO AROUND 60F
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG OVER INLAND AREAS AND
ALONG THE NEAR-SHORE COASTAL WATERS.
WEDNESDAY...STRONG COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AND CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONE MORE
DAY WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH AND MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S,
ALONG WITH LOW RAINFALL CHANCES, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY, BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL WILL
BE ACROSS SE GA, WITH MOISTURE LACKING FOR MUCH RAINFALL ACROSS NE
FL AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE REGION LATE AT NIGHT. LOW TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE 50S ACROSS SE GA, BUT REMAIN MILD IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS NE FL WITH THE LATE NIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THANKSGIVING DAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN NW OF THE REGION AND BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS SE GA AND LOWER 70S ACROSS NE
FL. JET STREAM MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
AND MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN USUAL.
ELEVATED NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL LINGER THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN A MORE CHILLY AIR MASS AS MIN TEMPS FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.
FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND
CONTINUES A CHILLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND BRISK FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS MAX TEMPS FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE, BUT WINDS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TOO ELEVATED FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FROST OR FREEZE. TEMPS
GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
AREAS OF DENSE FOG, MAINLY WEST OF DUVAL COUNTY AIRFIELDS, WILL
START TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE THROUGH ABOUT 13 TO 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL PEAK
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE A
WEAK/DRY FRONT HOWEVER WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG
WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH LOW STRATUS MAY BE MORE
COMMON AS WINDS AROUND 3 TO 5 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS RESTRICTIONS ARE HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEAST FL.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
AND MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW SUNDAY
NE FL LOW SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY
AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LACK ANY MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA SUFFERING FROM SEVERE/EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY WILL TREND
EASTERLY BY MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY
THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
SAT 11/22
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 84/1973
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 81/1997
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 86/1906
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 83/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 60 80 50 78 / 30 0 0 0
SSI 64 75 59 72 / 20 0 0 0
JAX 64 82 57 78 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 64 81 61 78 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 64 84 56 82 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 63 83 57 82 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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