833
FXUS62 KJAX 221732
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1232 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT & EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL
HIGHEST IMPACT AREA: I-75 CORRIDOR
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- EXTENDED DRY SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BE VERY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS. SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
NORTHEAST FL
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER THE FL BIG BEND WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND
INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
STRATUS DECK WILL SETTLE TOWARDS THE GROUND POTENTIALLY PRODUCING
AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAINLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE SCOURING OUT
ANY REMAINING FOG. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER FL WILL RETREAT
SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SE US.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
AREA-WIDE. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO INLAND
SE GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW
SIDE (POP 15-20%). ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE
MINIMAL AND WON'T BRING MUCH RELIEF TO THE CURRENT SEVERE/EXTREME
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE OUR
AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY IN
ITS WAKE. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT ELEVATED WINDS WILL LIMIT IT TO
PATCHY COVERAGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REGION FROM
OUT OF THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL DROP TO BE NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
CHALLENGE PREEXISTING DAILY RECORDS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
FOG HAS FULLY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THAT
WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, MAINLY IN THE 10-12 KNOT RANGE
BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET. LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR HIGH IMPACTS BEING AT GNV AND VQQ. AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE, THOUGH POTENTIAL CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR CEILINGS AS
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A BRIEF SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY AIRFIELD
TONIGHT, THOUGH OVERALL THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
AND MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW SUNDAY
NE FL LOW SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY
AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LACK ANY MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA SUFFERING FROM SEVERE/EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY WILL TREND
EASTERLY BY MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY
THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
SAT 11/22
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 84/1973
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 81/1997
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 86/1906
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 83/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 79 51 77 / 20 0 0 0
SSI 63 77 60 73 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 62 82 56 78 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 64 80 61 78 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 64 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 62 82 58 82 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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