655
FXUS62 KJAX 221809
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
109 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT & EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL
HIGHEST IMPACT AREA: I-75 CORRIDOR
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH CONTINUES INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- EXTENDED DRY SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BE VERY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS. SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
NORTHEAST FL
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
STUBBORN FOG OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED,
LEAVING A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WHILE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER NORTHEAST FL. MORE OF THESE CLOUDS WILL
SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST GA AS OF 1
PM. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA HAVE TENDED TO
DISSIPATE LATE THIS MORNING, THOUGH JUST ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING
COULD POP OP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST GA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUT DEFINITELY NOT A WASH OUT BY ANY MEANS. HI RES
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO A
SECONDARY ROUND OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT RIGHT
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR
GA. HOWEVER GIVEN BOTH THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
WEAKENING INSTABILITY/DYNAMICS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH JUST SOME
PASSING CLOUDS.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THOUGH SOME COOL
AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING, THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST FL BY SUNDAY MORNING AND
THEREFORE A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD NIGHT WILL STILL BE EXPECTED WITH
LOWS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER 50S OVER FAR
INTERIOR GA. THE MAIN NOTEWORTHY HAZARD TONIGHT WILL BE FOG
POTENTIAL, THOUGH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MAY KEEP WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE STIRRED UP JUST ENOUGH FOR MORE OF A LOW STRATUS TYPE OF
NIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG LOOK TO BE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE THE
HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND, BUT PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL
BE QUITE POSSIBLE OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE REGION FROM
OUT OF THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S OVER INLAND AREAS AND
IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE COASTLINE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM OUT OF THE NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL DROP TO BE NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY
CHALLENGE PREEXISTING DAILY RECORDS.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
FOG HAS FULLY DISSIPATED THIS MORNING, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THAT
WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, MAINLY IN THE 10-12 KNOT RANGE
BEFORE EASING AFTER SUNSET. LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR HIGH IMPACTS BEING AT GNV AND VQQ. AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE, THOUGH POTENTIAL CERTAINLY
EXISTS FOR IFR AND EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY FOR CEILINGS AS
WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. A BRIEF SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY AIRFIELD
TONIGHT, THOUGH OVERALL THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A WEAKENING
AND MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD ON SUNDAY TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR LOCAL
WATERS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BEGINNING ON TUESDAY EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW SUNDAY
NE FL LOW SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY
AS A MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS AREA-WIDE AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LACK ANY MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL FOR THE AREA SUFFERING FROM SEVERE/EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY WILL TREND
EASTERLY BY MONDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY
THIS MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. PATCHY INLAND FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES TODAY...
SAT 11/22
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 84/1973
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 81/1997
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 86/1906
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 83/2011
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 59 79 51 77 / 20 0 0 0
SSI 63 77 60 73 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 62 82 56 78 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 64 80 61 78 / 10 0 0 0
GNV 64 83 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 62 82 58 82 / 10 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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