042
FXUS62 KJAX 242340
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
640 PM EST MON NOV 24 2025
..AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE INLAND LATE TONIGHT
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MORNING FOG POTENTIAL DAILY THROUGH MID WEEK. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
A QUARTER MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- EXTENDED DRY SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BE VERY CAUTIOUS
WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS. SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS INLAND AREAS
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
REST OF TODAY, PLEASANT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S ON EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 10-15 MPH IN SOME AREAS. MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
NEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WORKS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE COASTAL
WATERS ARE WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ANY
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
THE FOG AND STRATUS FORECAST WITH THE INDICATIONS FROM CROSS-OVER
TEMPS AND THE LIGHT WINDS SUGGESTING AT LEAST 3-5SM VISIBILITIES BUT
SOME LOCALLY LOWER VISIBILITY ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE HREF
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR INLAND AREAS WHICH SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THAT DEWPOINTS MAY RECOVER SOME LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EVEN SO, THE FALL OFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT
MAY NOT BE AS QUICK AS LAST NIGHT SO CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG
THE RADIATION INVERSION WILL BE TONIGHT. IN ANY EVENT, BASED ON
PERSISTENT AND LATEST GUIDANCE, DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. AREAS TO POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL START US
OFF TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY AROUND MID MORNING,
LEAVING A MILD DAY WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN OVERALL WARMER TEMPS
COMPARED TO TUESDAY, AS LOW TO MID 70S WILL BE COMMON EXCEPT FOR
SOME UPPER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. FOG WILL BE LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE GULF. LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY MORNING
SIMILARLY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER: GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.
SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THE FRONT TO ENTER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA BY ABOUT LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY, PUSHING ACROSS NORTHEAST FL LATE
EVENING THROUGH THE START OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOOD NEWS GIVEN THE
CURRENT ONGOING DROUGHT SITUATION IS THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FEATURE MORE SHOWERS/CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY DROP OFF THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU GO WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY DECREASES AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHEAST FL. IN SUMMARY, HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BE THE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO, WITH POPS
RANGING FROM AROUND 15-20% NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND GAINESVILLE TO THE
40-60% RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS. ISOLATED THUNDER WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT T'STORM/STRONG T'STORM
CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL BE A BIT TRICKIER BASED ON THE FROPA
TIMING AS WELL AS RAINFALL/CLOUD COVERAGE. MAIN IDEA WILL BE 70S
GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF WAYCROSS AND LOW TO MID 80S SOUTH AND
EAST. MODEST TO STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION FILLS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH BRINGS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GRADUALLY TO AN
END WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION, WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE 40S
OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND THE UPPER SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE 50S
SOUTH AND EAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
COOLER TEMPS AND LOWER HUMIDITY EVADE THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE ASSOCIATED HIGH SLIDES NORTH OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WILL MEAN DRY/FAIR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPS END THE
WEEK GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL BEFORE TRENDING CLOSER TO AND POSSIBLY
EVEN ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS IS ON TRACK TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AFFECTING ALL
TAF SITES BETWEEN 06-13Z. BEST CHANCES FOR LIFR VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS WILL BE THE JAX METRO SITES AND GNV. FOG/STRATUS
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 14Z. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND 5 KTS PREVAILS ON TUESDAY.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDS TURNING GRADUALLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY MID WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, TRAILED BY NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS APPROACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL
CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO LOCALLY MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY AND THEN
LOW TO MODERATE AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH SURF TO ABOUT 1 TO
POSSIBLY 2 FOOT.
FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY..
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND SHIFT EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN INLAND
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH VERY LITTLE RAIN CHANCES AS IT DOES SO. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
CREATE BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY, BUT WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TO THE COAST WITH OVERALL
PRECIP AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ENHANCED FLOW BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS AND THERE
PRODUCE AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WEDNESDAY & INTO THURSDAY
INLAND.
A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS INTO THE
20S INLAND WILL CREATE CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INLAND WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25-
30 MPH WILL ALSO BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS AND FURTHER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE UPDATED FOR THIS POTENTIAL. GOOD TO HIGH
LEVEL DISPERSIONS EXPECTED TO END THE WEEK.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
TUE 11/25 WED 11/26
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 85/1992 84/1946
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 83/1992 83/2020
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 85/1955 84/1973
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 83/1986 84/1973
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 56 81 60 78 / 0 0 10 50
SSI 62 77 62 78 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 58 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 20
SGJ 63 80 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 58 85 60 83 / 0 0 0 20
OCF 58 83 59 83 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page