630
FXUS62 KJAX 250524
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1224 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- MORNING FOG POTENTIAL DAILY THROUGH MID WEEK. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO
A QUARTER MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS INLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- EXTENDED DRY SPELL CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BE VERY CAUTIOUS
WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS. SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT EXPANDING ACROSS INLAND AREAS
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN THE LIGHT/MOIST LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST ALREADY
IN PLACE. NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITIES THAT WERE SEEN MONDAY MORNING, BUT ENOUGH LOCATIONS
BETWEEN THE I-95 AND US 301 CORRIDORS ACROSS NE FL/SE GA MAY FALL TO
1/4 MILE OR LESS TO REQUIRE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME AREAS
BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS STILL GENERALLY IN THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
QUASI WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD EARLY THIS
MORNING IT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT OVERALL THESE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE,
LIKELY ONLY PUSHING CLOSE TO THE SE GA BEACHES TOWARDS SUNRISE.
TODAY...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND NEAR
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH
WILL PUSH TEMPS TO NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S OVER INLAND AREAS AND AROUND 80F AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES. LIKELY
NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY AS RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS.
TONIGHT...APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH IN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO INLAND SE GA AND
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH FL TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECT A LIGHT AND MOIST SW FLOW OFF THE NE GULF
WHICH WILL SHIFT THE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL BACK TOWARDS INLAND NE FL
AND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AS MORE OF AN ADVECTIVE DENSE/SEA FOG
OFF THE NE GULF MAY PUSH INLAND DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO EARLY LIFTING AND
DISSIPATION OF FOG AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F OVER INLAND
AREAS AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY, DEEP TROUGHING WILL SPILL EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE US AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CARVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND OH VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DRIVE A STRONG
COLD FRONT, IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, ESE THROUGH THE AREA.
THE STRONGEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND BROAD SCALE LIFT WILL
SHIFT NORTH OF THE REGION AND LIMIT STORM CHANCES TO ISOLATED
COVERAGE OVER NW PORTIONS OF SE GA. LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
UNDER A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY
THROUGH THE AREA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT GOES THROUGH A
WEAKENING PHASE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WARM WEATHER WILL REMAIN
BRIEFLY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS BOOSTS HIGHS TO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER
NE FL WITH NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SE GA AND
TOWARDS SUNRISE AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL SINK TO THE LOW 40S OVER
INLAND SE GA AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG I-10 INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY WITH LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL.
THURSDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BRISK NW WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE FOR COOL
CONDITIONS DESPITE SKIES TURNING BECOMING SUNNY BY MIDDAY OVER SE GA
AND THE AFTERNOON OVER NE FL. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO
THE LOW 60S OVER SE GA AND THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER NE FL.
THURSDAY NIGHT, CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVE AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER
TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL DROP LOWS TO THE LOW 30S OVER INLAND SE GA WITH A POTENTIAL
LIGHT FREEZE WHILE LESS CHILLY SOUTH AND EAST WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
WEST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER OVER NE FL AND LOW 40S FROM THE RIVER TO
THE COAST. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S NORTH OF I-10.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FRIDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS PERSISTING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S OVER SE GA AND THE LOW
60S OVER NE FL, A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.
SATURDAY MORNING, A POTENTIAL FROST MAY GREET INLAND LOCATIONS AS
NORTH WINDS TURN VERY LIGHT. LOWS START IN THE LOW 30S OVER INLAND
SE GA AND MID 30S OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND MODERATING TO THE
LOW 40S TO I-95 AND MID/UPPER 40S AT THE COAST AS WINDS VEER NORTH
NORTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY. BY THE AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING WILL FORM NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS AND SERVE
TO KEEP A TIGHTENED LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND BRING
ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE. HIGHS WILL WARM COMPARED TO FRIDAY
WITH MID/UPPER 60S OVER SE GA AND LOW 70S RETURNING TO INLAND NE FL.
SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
ROCKIES. RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM FURTHER INTO THE LOW/MID 70S OVER SE GA AND THE UPPER 70S
OVER NE FL WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
OVER THE AREA. INVERTED TROUGHING WILL GENERATE ISOLATED/SCATTERED
COASTAL SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY, A STRENGTHENING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH FL AND THE
BAHAMAS WILL DEFLECT A LEADING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE WESTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA WARMER WITH MOST OF THE
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
MID SOUTH TO THE GREAT LAKES STAYING TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
OTHERWISE, ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTAL ZONES
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SE GA AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS FROM THE GULF COAST. HIGHS WILL BE ONLY A LITTLE WARMER
COMPARED TO SUNDAY WITH MID/UPPER 70S OVER SE GA AND AROUND 80 OVER
NE FL TO LOWS 80S INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS IS ON TRACK TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06-13Z. BEST CHANCES FOR
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE THE JAX METRO SITES AND GNV.
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE BY 14Z. VFR CONDS AND SOUTH TO
SW FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A WEAK SE SEA BREEZE WIND
SHIFT EXPECTED AT CRG/SSI/SGJ BY 18-20Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT VFR CONDS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH ANY FOG
CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT 06Z TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TODAY RESULTING
IN BREEZY WINDS VEERING GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, TRAILED BY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS APPROACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AS SURF/BREAKERS
SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE 2-3 FT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY..
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY AFTER FOGGY
CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH NO RAIN AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GA WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED
T'STORMS, BUT LESS CHANCES EASTWARD TO THE COAST AS THE SHOWERS
DISSIPATE LATE IN THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT, LIMITING TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY.
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES THURSDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FL WILL CREATE CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH
VALUES 20-25 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. WHILE WINDS
APPEAR MARGINAL 10-15 MPH, GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES AND
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
10 HOUR FUELS APPEAR TO NOT REACH THRESHOLDS AS WELL, STAYING WELL
ABOVE 6 PERCENT.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD FROM I-95 TO I-75 IN NORTHEAST FL AND NEAR THE COAST TO
US 441 IN SOUTHEAST GA. VISIBILITY WILL LOWER TO A QUARTER OF A MILE.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, AREAS OF FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE I-75
CORRIDOR TO NEAR HIGHWAY 301 OVER NORTHEAST FL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
TUE 11/25 WED 11/26
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 85/1992 84/1946
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 83/1992 83/2020
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 85/1955 84/1973
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 83/1986 84/1973
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 60 77 40 61 / 30 40 0 0
SSI 63 79 47 64 / 10 10 0 0
JAX 61 83 47 66 / 10 20 0 0
SGJ 62 82 53 67 / 10 10 0 0
GNV 59 82 51 68 / 0 20 0 0
OCF 59 82 54 68 / 0 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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