008
FXUS62 KJAX 260529
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1229 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FOG POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER
MILE OR LESS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY INLAND AREAS
- NEAR RECORD WARMTH & DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. BE VERY CAUTIOUS
WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
- POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZE/FROST FRIDAY & SATURDAY MORNING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NE GULF INTO THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY OF INLAND NORTH FL AND ALREADY HAVE DENSE FOG
REPORTED AT LIVE OAK, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO INLAND SE GA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE ISSUED AN SPS TO HANDLE SOME
LOCALIZED DENSE FOG, BUT SLIGHTLY MORE ELEVATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHOULD KEEP THIS FOG EVENT OVER THESE INLAND AREAS MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE AND NOT EXPECTING TO REQUIRE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES, BUT STILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY AND RELATIVELY MILD FOR
LATE NOVEMBER WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S/NEAR 60F OVER INLAND
AREAS AND LOWER/MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE MUCH LESS
FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TODAY...SLOW MOVING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO INLAND SE GA THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS, WHICH COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS,
BUT OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO FIZZLE AS IT TRACKS INTO COASTAL SE GA AND
NE FL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED AND LIKELY MUCH LOWER CHANCES OF THUNDER AS THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY 0.10"-0.25" ACROSS
SE GA AND AMOUNTS LESS THAN 0.10" ACROSS NE FL, SO NO RELIEF TO THE
ONGOING DROUGHT IS EXPECTED AND SOME OF THE NE FL CLIMATE SITES WILL
LIKELY NOT RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A NEAR RECORD WARM LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS NE FL, WHILE GENERALLY MID/UPPER
70S EXPECTED ACROSS SE GA DUE TO THE EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY LEVELS AROUND 15
MPH TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH AT
TIMES.
TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH ONLY
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM OCALA TO PALM
COAST, THEN EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH AT TIMES. LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S FROM THE I-10
NORTHWARD ACROSS ALL OF SE GA, WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE 30S
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
50S SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH WIND CHILLS INTO THE 40S. WILL
BE A RATHER CHILLY START, COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS OVER THE
PAST 2 WEEKS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY, DEEP TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY AND STRONG RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BUILDING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN FL. BRISK NW WINDS
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE FOR COOL CONDITIONS UNDER
CLEARING SKIES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE LOW
60S OVER SE GA AND THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER NE FL.
THURSDAY NIGHT, CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVE AS THE HIGH BUILDS CLOSER
TO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. CLEAR SKIES WITH ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL DROP LOWS TO THE LOW 30S OVER INLAND SE GA WITH A
POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZE OVER SE GA WEST OF I-95 WITH LOWS STAYING
JUST ABOVE FREEZING OVER INLAND NE FL WHERE MID TO UPPER 30S DIP
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL AND LOW 40S SPREAD INTO THE ST JOHNS RIVER
FROM DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE SOUTHWARD AND TO THE COAST.
FRIDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO
THE TN/OH VALLEYS WITH BRISK NORTH WINDS PERSISTING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 50S OVER SE GA AND THE LOW
60S OVER NE FL, A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL OCCURRING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.
FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY UNDER INITIALLY
CLEAR SKIES DOWN THROUGH THE 40S AFTER SUNSET AND WELL INTO THE 30S
INLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS FROM THE NORTH VEER NNE ALONG THE COAST
LATE OVERNIGHT AND BUFFER THE COAST FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES HOLDING
IN THE LOW/MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE COAST WITH UPPER 40S FURTHER
SOUTH TO THE FLAGLER COUNTY COAST. BUT, EXPECT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOW 30S OVER INLAND SE GA WITH READINGS BELOW FREEZING FOR WAYCROSS
AND AREAS NW OF US 84 WITH MID 30S SOUTH TO THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY MODERATING TO THE UPPER 30S NEAR THE.
THE COLD INLAND TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT A
POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD FROST FOR INLAND LOCATIONS, THOUGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS STREAKING IN FROM THE WEST DOWNSTREAM OF A STORM SYSTEM OVER
TX MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK INVERTED TROUGHING WILL FORM NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS AND BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND THE INVERTED TROUGHING. THE
ELEVATED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MODERATE MOISTURE LEVELS ENOUGH TO
SCOUR OUT THE VERY LOW DEWPOINTS INLAND UP TO THE 40S WITH ATLANTIC
STRATOCUMULUS PUSHING ONTO THE COAST. HIGHS WILL WARM COMPARED TO
FRIDAY WITH MID/UPPER 60S OVER SE GA INTO I-10 AND THE COAST AND LOW
70S RETURNING TO AT LEAST NORTH CENTRAL NE FL.
SUNDAY, ANOTHER POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING FROM LAKE MI INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WHILE RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTS WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN WEST
ATLANTIC WATERS. INVERTED TROUGHING WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, LIFTING A WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL
FL BY EVENING WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT WARMER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW/MID 70S OVER SE GA AND THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 OVER NE FL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE WARM
FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY. AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ANOTHER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND APPROACH THE AREA INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE FORMER
BRINGING IN SHOWERS FASTER DURING TUESDAY AND THE LATTER SHOWING THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. POPS MAY
INCREASE WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF THE MODELS CAN DETECT AND
AGREE WHERE THE MAIN LOW WILL TRACK WITH A WETTING RAINFALL NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ANOTHER COLD AND DRY AIRMASS
ARRIVING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
VFR CONDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD, THEN LATEST HI-RES/NBM MODEL
GUIDANCE TRENDING WITH LOWER FOG CHANCES TOWARDS MORNING AND ONLY
GNV/VQQ HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR FOG IN THE 08-12Z TIME FRAME,
WHILE ONLY EXPECTING MVFR FOG CHANCES AT JAX, AND THE COASTAL TAF
SITES OF SSI/SGJ/CRG REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-12G15-18 KNOTS AT TAF SITES AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND OVERALL RAINFALL CHANCES REMAIN
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT, SO WILL LIKELY ONLY ADD VCSH AT THIS TIME
SINCE THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN EVEN LOWER. WILL TRY TO TIME WIND SHIFT
TO THE NW THAT TAKES PLACE IN THE 22-04Z TIME FRAME FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS
WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO PRESS INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO
SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST, BEFORE SUBSIDING
ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES WITH
SURF/BREAKERS OF 2-3 FT AS N-NE SWELL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
DEVELOPING FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, FIRST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GA THIS MORNING AND NORTHEAST FL LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH. A BROKEN
LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THIN OUT WITH SOUTHEAST EXTENT AS IT
MOVES TO THE COAST, BUT AN ISOLATED T'STORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR MIDDAY
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DISSIPATING ACTIVITY AND SWIFT MOVEMENT OF
THE SHOWERS WILL LIMIT TOTAL RAINFALL TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH
INLAND AND LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS, AREAS OF HIGH
DAYTIME ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY, A CHANGE IN THE AIR ARRIVES THANKS TO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LOW DEWPOINTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL CREATE CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES 20-25
PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE STRONG HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY, THE DRY AIRMASS REMAINS WITH MIN RH VALUES EVEN LOWER INTO
THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE OVER INLAND SE GA AND 20-25 PERCENT RANGE
FOR INLAND NE FL. THEREFORE, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM THE GULF COAST AND SPREAD TO INLAND SE
GA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FOG
MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH VISIBILITY UNDER 1 MILE, ESPECIALLY
NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 WITH PATCH FOG ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 301.
A BRIEF STRONG T'STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES...
WED 11/26
JACKSONVILLE, FL (JAX) 84/1946
CRAIG EXEC ARPT (CRG) 83/2020
GAINESVILLE, FL (GNV) 84/1973
ALMA, GEORGIA (AMG) 84/1973
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 40 61 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 46 63 38 57 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 49 66 35 60 / 10 0 0 0
SGJ 54 67 42 60 / 20 0 0 0
GNV 52 68 37 62 / 10 0 0 0
OCF 55 69 37 62 / 20 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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