124
FXUS62 KJAX 262337
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
637 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- COOL & DRY CONDITIONS THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH THE END THE. BE VERY
CAUTIOUS WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS AS DROUGHT
- POTENTIAL LIGHT FREEZE/FROST FRIDAY & SATURDAY MORNING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING,
WITH A REVAMP IN RAIN CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW OVERNIGHT, BUT NON-ZERO AT THIS
TIME. THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS AND ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S. MORE MILD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE 50S AND
60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ALONG THE COASTLINE. POTENTIAL FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENTS OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTENDING INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUILDING IN FROM OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP THIS WEEKEND WITH DAILY
HIGH AND LOW TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM SSI TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
06Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND ONE STORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
MOVE THROUGH THE JAX METRO SITES BETWEEN 01-04Z. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS.
MARINE
SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AS
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS. WINDS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE TO BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON FRIDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST,
BEFORE SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE TODAY AND THURSDAY
NE FL MODERATE TODAY AND THURSDAY
FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY...
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF ABOUT 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND
25 MPH. A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL THIN OUT WITH
SOUTHEAST EXTENT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE COAST, HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR DURING MIDDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
DISSIPATING ACTIVITY AND SWIFT MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIMIT
TOTAL RAINFALL TO UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH INLAND AND LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS, AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME ARE EXPECTED.
A DRIER AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOWER DEW POINTS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION, CREATING CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES 20-25 PERCENT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE STRONG HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH
FRIDAY, THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO MINRH VALUES
DROPPING INTO THE 15-20 PERCENT RANGE OVER INLAND SE GA AND 20-25
PERCENT RANGE FOR INLAND NE FL. AS SUCH, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A BRIEF STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 40 60 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 48 64 39 58 / 10 0 0 0
JAX 49 67 35 59 / 30 10 0 0
SGJ 55 67 42 60 / 20 10 0 0
GNV 52 68 35 61 / 20 0 0 0
OCF 56 69 36 61 / 20 10 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ452-454-472-474.
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