693
FXUS62 KJAX 271727
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1227 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
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- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. BE VERY CAUTIOUS
WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS AS
- SEVERE/EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT INLAND LOCATIONS
- LIGHT FREEZE & WIDESPREAD FROST FRI & SAT MORNINGS INLAND. FREEZE
WARNINGS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT & EARLY FRI FOR MOST INLAND LOCATIONS
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI EVENING
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH COLD ADVECTION. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL. FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY STIRRING
WINDS, HOWEVER, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THIS
FEATURE THEN PIVOTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE AREA-
WIDE, WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, SHUTTING OFF COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND DECOUPLING WINDS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED BENEATH A GRADUALLY INCREASING THIN CIRRUS
SHIELD OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS TO
THE LOW AND MID 30S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY,
WHERE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS FORECAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL, WHERE PATCHY
FROST FORMATION IS LIKELY, WHILE COASTAL LOWS FALL TO THE LOW AND
MID 40S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND,
MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN, CREATING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER
OTHERWISE REMAINING IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL TROUGHING, THE OVERALL DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN, PREVENTING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AS WELL AS COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FL. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COUNTER
DECOUPLING WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING LOWS
IN THE 40S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR,
WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST WHICH WILL DRAG ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AREA-WIDE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY ALONG NORTH
CENTRAL FL AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO CENTRAL FL DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BY
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SCATTERED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ALONG THE COAST.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND
BEGIN SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. FURTHERMORE WE COULD SEE CHANCES
INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS BROUGHT INTO THE AREA AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE. BY MIDWEEK, DRY WEATHER
LOOKS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE USHERS IN A
DRY COOL AIRMASS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY, TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA LOW FRIDAY
NE FL MODERATE FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR INLAND AREAS
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY,
CREATING LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AT ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS. BREEZY NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
BREEZY TRANSPORT SPEEDS AREA-WIDE AND BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES REGION-
WIDE, WITH MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE OCALA NATIONAL
FOREST. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT
TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS YIELDING FAIR TO
GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THROUGHOUT OUR AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS
OF INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION, BUT PATCHY AREAS OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AT WIND SHELTERED, INLAND LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS FORECAST DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INLAND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT INLAND
LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 31 55 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 37 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 34 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 41 59 47 70 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 34 61 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 34 60 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-322-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ452-454-472-
474.
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