205
FXUS62 KJAX 271822
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
122 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
INLAND ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BE VERY CAUTIOUS WITH OUTDOOR
FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS AS SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- LIGHT FREEZES ON FRIDAY & SATURDAY MORNINGS INLAND. FREEZE
WARNINGS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT & EARLY FRIDAY FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT & EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH COLD ADVECTION. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL. FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY STIRRING
WINDS, HOWEVER, A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY MORNING, WITH THIS
FEATURE THEN PIVOTING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
NORTHERLY BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 55-60 DEGREE RANGE AREA-
WIDE, WHICH IS ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, SHUTTING OFF COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, A VERY DRY AIR MASS AND DECOUPLING WINDS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED BENEATH A GRADUALLY INCREASING THIN CIRRUS
SHIELD OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO DROP LOWS TO
THE LOW AND MID 30S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY,
WHERE AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS FORECAST BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL FALL TO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL, WHERE PATCHY
FROST FORMATION IS LIKELY, WHILE COASTAL LOWS FALL TO THE LOW AND
MID 40S.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND,
MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND TOWARDS
SUNRISE ON SUNDAY. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER OUR LOCAL
WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN, CREATING BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THAT WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT
MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOSTLY THIN CIRRUS CLOUD COVER
OTHERWISE REMAINING IN PLACE ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL TROUGHING, THE OVERALL DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE SLOW TO
MOISTEN, PREVENTING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR AS WELL AS COASTAL LOCATIONS, WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTH CENTRAL FL. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL COUNTER
DECOUPLING WINDS AT INLAND LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING LOWS
IN THE 40S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR,
WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LOCALLY ON SUNDAY
DOWNSTREAM OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PWATS WILL GRADUALLY
RECOVER TO AROUND 1 INCH BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR AREA. FILTERED SUNSHINE BENEATH GRADUALLY
INCREASING MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
BOOST HIGHS TO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE THROUGHOUT OUR REGION.
ALTHOUGH PWATS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY NIGHT, SUPPORT ALOFT WILL BE
WEAKENING, LEAVING JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 50S
INLAND AND AROUND 60 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS.
TROUGHING THAT WILL BE DEEPENING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE
THIS WEEKEND WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ON MONDAY,
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES THE
DEEP SOUTH ON TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE THEN ACCELERATING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE OUTER BANKS ON TUESDAY EVENING, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS OUR AREA
AHEAD OF THIS STORM SYSTEM, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A LIFTING WARM FRONT ON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO AGAIN CLIMB TO THE 75-80 DEGREE
RANGE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-10, WHILE HIGHS NORTH OF THE
DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE
FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-10 AND 50S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-
10.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
THE BEST CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO OUR AREA IN OVER A
MONTH. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 40-50 KNOTS AT 850 MILLIBARS
(AROUND 5,000 FEET) WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING HOURS. THIS COULD PROMOTE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH WIDESPREAD
DOWNPOURS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE AS PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM SYSTEM COMES
INTO BETTER FOCUS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO THE 75-80 DEGREE RANGE WITHIN THIS STORM
SYSTEM'S WARM SECTOR, WHICH WILL MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
SOUTH AND EAST OF WAYCROSS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA. STRATIFORM
RAINFALL NORTH OF WAYCROSS MAY KEEP HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 60S ON
TUESDAY.
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN ACCELERATE OFFSHORE OF COASTAL
NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL
CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A
NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE ADVECTING A COOLER AIR MASS INTO OUR AREA,
DROPPING LOWS INTO THE 40S BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH LOWER 50S CURRENTLY FORECAST
ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA, EXCEPT AROUND 70 IN NORTH CENTRAL FL. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING,
ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WITH 40S ELSEWHERE INLAND,
RANGING TO AROUND 50 FOR COASTAL NORTHEAST FL.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY, TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE FRIDAY
NE FL HIGH FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY,
CREATING LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AT ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS. BREEZY NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
BREEZY TRANSPORT SPEEDS AREA-WIDE AND BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES REGION-
WIDE, WITH MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE OCALA NATIONAL
FOREST. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT
TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS YIELDING FAIR TO
GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THROUGHOUT OUR AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 31 55 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 37 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 34 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 41 59 47 70 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 34 61 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 34 60 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-322-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ452-454-472-
474.
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