921
FXUS62 KJAX 280034
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
734 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BE
VERY CAUTIOUS WITH OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS AS
SEVERE TO
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT INLAND LOCATIONS
- LIGHT FREEZES ON FRIDAY & SATURDAY MORNINGS INLAND. FREEZE
WARNINGS ISSUED LATE TONIGHT & EARLY FRI FOR MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS. WIDESPREAD FROST POTENTIAL INLAND LATE SAT NIGHT &
EARLY SUN MORNING
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI EVENING
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY
UPDATE
A CHILLY THANKSGIVING AIRMASS IS PUSH INTO THE REGION ON A
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. GRADIENTS WILL RELAX SOME OVERNIGHT
AS COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, A LIGHT BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INOT THE 30S INLAND AND POTENTIALLY THE UPPER
20S FOR LOCATIONS IN FAR INLAND SE GA.
THE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLIER WITH WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 20S. THOSE COLD WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL PUSH INTO THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL AS WELL,
NEARING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING THE
ADVISORY, AS WINDS ARE GENERALLY GOING TO BE LESS THAN 10 MPH,
MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 3-6 MPH RANGE WITH THE WEAKING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THE LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD MITIGATE FROST DEVELOPMENT,
EXCEPT ON STRUCTURES/VEHICLES THAT ARE SHELTERED FROM THE NORTH
WINDS.
OTHERWISE, THE TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE LIGHTER THAN ANTICIPATED WINDS AT THIS HOUR. AN
EXPANSIVE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH NO EXTENSIONS TO
THE WARNING AREA.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS PERIOD.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY, TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES FURTHER AWAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE FRIDAY
NE FL HIGH FRIDAY
FIRE WEATHER
...LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES FOR INLAND
AREAS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY,
CREATING LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AT ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS. BREEZY NORTHERLY TRANSPORT WINDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH
SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.
FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.
SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
BREEZY TRANSPORT SPEEDS AREA-WIDE AND BREEZY SURFACE WINDS
DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.
THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL CREATE GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES REGION-
WIDE, WITH MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES POSSIBLE IN THE OCALA NATIONAL
FOREST. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT
TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND SOUTHERLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS YIELDING FAIR TO
GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES THROUGHOUT OUR AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, AND PORTIONS
OF INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION, BUT PATCHY AREAS OF FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE AT WIND SHELTERED, INLAND LOCATIONS.
ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY, WHERE
AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION IS FORECAST DUE TO LIGHTER
WINDS. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE INLAND
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT INLAND
LOCATIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 31 55 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
SSI 37 57 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAX 34 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
SGJ 41 59 47 70 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 34 61 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
OCF 34 60 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-322-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ450-470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ452-454-472-
474.
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