097
FXUS62 KJAX 280626
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
126 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. BE VERY CAUTIOUS WITH
OUTDOOR FIRES. CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS.
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE INLAND.
- LIGHT INLAND FREEZES THIS MORNING & SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZE
WARNINGS THIS MORNING MOST INLAND LOCATIONS. FREEZE WATCH FOR
INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SATURDAY MORNING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- BENEFICIAL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SUNNY, BREEZY, AND CHILLY TODAY. AFTER AN INLAND MORNING FREEZE AND
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THROUGH 9 AM, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S
FOR MOST TODAY NEAR 60 TOWARD MARION-PUTNAM AND FLAGLER COUNTIES.
THESE HIGHS ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 20-25 MPH
INLAND TO NEAR 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS BEGIN TO BECOME NNE THIS EVENING TO ENE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL
TROUGH BEGINS TO FORM OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES NEAR COASTAL AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
EXTENDING INLAND TOWARD THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF SE GA AND THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN TONIGHT, WHILE MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW
40 ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN FARTHER INLAND ACROSS SE GA AND THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF ANOTHER LIGHT FREEZE
WILL BE ACROSS INLAND SE GA WHERE A FREEZE WATCH WAS POSTED THROUGH
DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL, A
FROST EVENT IS MORE LIKELY WHERE TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 30S
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE OF A HEAVY FROST IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A
FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME GIVEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
70S. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY, HELPING KEEP
COASTAL TEMPERATURES COOLER DURING THE DAY AND MORE MILD OVERNIGHT.
LOWS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40 DEGREES AREA-WIDE, SO THERE ARE
NO FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS.
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
COLD FRONT. MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES
AFTER A COOLER PAST FEW DAYS, HIGHS WILL REACH THE 70S AREA-WIDE,
NEAR 80 IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY, ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA, LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MORE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TOTALS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AND A LIFTING WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL PRIMARILY FALL OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WHERE MUCH OF THE SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CURRENTLY
PERSISTS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY ARE AT ABOUT 20-30% AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW BRINGS PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. FURTHER
MOISTER ADVECTION FROM STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL CHANCES TO 60-80% ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA ON TUESDAY. A LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET OF 40-50 KNOTS AT
850 MILLIBARS MAY FAVOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, TO UPPER 70S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BOTH DAYS.
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT, DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S ON WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NNW WINDS 5-10
KTS BECOME NNE ACROSS FL TERMINALS FRI AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT
TIMES BY MID-MORNING FRI. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW LOW COASTAL CLOUDS
NEARING SGJ AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION. ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST. A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS NEARING SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS OVER AT LEAST THE OUTER WATERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY TUESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS QUICKLY OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RIP TODAY WITH STRONGER LONG-SHORE (NORTH
TO SOUTH) CURRENTS. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY SATURDAY FOR A
LEAST NE FLORIDA BEACHES AS ONSHORE (EAST) WINDS DEVELOP.
MODERATE TO LOW END HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SUNDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY,
CREATING LONG DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AT ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE 15-25% RANGE. BREEZY NORTHERLY
TRANSPORT WINDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SURFACE SPEEDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME
DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST- NORTHEASTERLY BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN EASTERLY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY
TRANSPORT SPEEDS AREA-WIDE. THESE BREEZY WINDS WILL CREATE GOOD
DAYTIME DISPERSION VALUES, WITH MARGINALLY HIGH VALUES POSSIBLE
IN THE OCALA NATIONAL FOREST. SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
THEN DIMINISH AS THEY SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING
AND SOUTHERLY AT INLAND LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS YIELDING FAIR TO GOOD DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES THROUGHOUT OUR AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 31 61 43 74 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 43 65 56 72 / 0 0 0 10
JAX 39 68 52 78 / 0 0 0 10
SGJ 47 70 59 77 / 0 0 0 10
GNV 38 71 52 80 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 39 71 53 79 / 0 0 0 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-031-035-120-136-220-225-232-236-237-322-422-425-522.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ450-
470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-
454-472-474.
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