575
FXUS62 KJAX 281757
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TODAY. BE VERY CAUTIOUS WITH
OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS AS SEVERE TO
- EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT INLAND LOCATIONS
- FREEZE WATCH INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
MAINLY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA. PATCHY FROST ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA
INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT NE FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL YIELD AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE COAST. THE AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM EAST TO
WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER INLAND SE GA, TO THE
UPPER 40S OVER COASTAL NE FL.
A LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INLAND SE GA, AND
PATCHY FROST FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FROM CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE EAST AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WILL BRING BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
HIGHER 25-30 MPH FROM THE PINCHED LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONSHORE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MODERATE MOISTURE LEVELS ENOUGH TO ERODE THE
VERY LOW DEWPOINTS WHILE ATLANTIC STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS STREAM ONTO
THE COAST AND INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL. WARMER HIGHS EXPECTED
COMPARED TO FRIDAY WITH LOW/MID 60S OVER SE GA, UPPER 60S ALONG I-10
AND MUCH OF THE COAST WITH LOW 70S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL.
SATURDAY NIGHT, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL END POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 40S
INLAND AND THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER NE FL, BUT MORE MODERATE
OVER THE COAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
SUNDAY, A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS MI TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO,
WHILE RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTING WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS PULLS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. INVERTED TROUGHING
WILL PERSIST TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST,
LIFTING A WARM FRONT INTO CENTRAL FL WITH LIGHT EASTERLY TO EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY OVER INLAND SE GA WHERE A
QUICK SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES MOISTURE
LEVELS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOW/MID 70S OVER SE GA AND THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 OVER NE FL.
SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA, SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, BUT ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 50S FOR SE GA AND THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER NE FL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MONDAY, MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE NE US AND
SUPPORT A COLD FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH, THEN STALLING ACROSS NE FL AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT MONDAY WITH POPS 20-
30 PERCENT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH
BRING A CONTRAST OF HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT
WITH MID TO UPPER 60S OVER SE GA, BUT WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S
INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL.
TUESDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SWIFTLY EASTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY WILL SPUR A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES THAT WILL MOVE ENE TO THE CAROLINAS
BY LATE IN THE DAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE
GULF COAST WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET WINDS OF 40-50 KNOTS THAT
MAY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER T'STORM FORMING IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OCCURS. THIS LOW CAPE HIGH SHEAR (AROUND 45-55 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR) SETUP WILL BE MONINTORED CLOSELY, ESPECIALLY AS THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW BECOMES BETTER DEFINED OVER THE WEEEKEND.
STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND PWATS RISING ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE (OVER 1.75 INCHES) WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T'STORMS. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE NEAR A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH WITH AMOUNTS LESSENING
INTO THE NE FL COAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL, THROUGH HIGH END NBM
GUIIDANCE SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES ACROSS
INLAND SE GA. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S OVER NE FL AND
AND LOW 70S OVER SE GA COOLING INTO THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER.
WEDNEDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE NE FL
COAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL WEDNESDAY MORNING AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
INLAND THURSDAY MORNING TO LOW 50S ALONG THE NE FL COAST.
FRIDAY, ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. LIMITING
POPS TO THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE DUE TO UNCERTIANTY IN THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. INCREASING CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS
WILL LIMT HIGHS TO NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE 60S OVER SE
GA AND INTO NE FL WITH LOW 70S INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY DURING
THE DAY TIME HOURS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY, WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL TRACK AWAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOCAL AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SATURDAY
NE FL HIGH SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
...CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...
..AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE AREA PRODUCING MIN RH
VALUES 15-20 PERCENT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CRITICALLY LOW
RH VALUES AND WINDS FROM THE NORTH 10-15 MPH WILL PRODUCE NEAR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS TURNING EASTERLY AND BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH, BUT WITH MIN RH LEVELS
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. INCREASING SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. SUNDAY, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FURTHER INLAND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAKER SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE FAIR DISPERSIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY, A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG T'STORMS
WITH A WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
AREAS OF FROST INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 29 62 43 73 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 44 65 53 72 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 37 68 51 78 / 0 10 0 10
SGJ 47 70 59 77 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 37 71 51 81 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 39 72 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ132>136-
149-151-152-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-
454-472-474.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page