363
FXUS62 KJAX 290012
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
712 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TODAY. BE VERY CAUTIOUS WITH
OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS AS SEVERE TO EXTREME
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT INLAND LOCATIONS
- FREEZE WARNING INLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. MAINLY INLAND SOUTHEAST GA, AREAS OF FROST INTO
SUWANNEE VALLEY
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT NE FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH WILL YIELD AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG
THE COAST. THE AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A SHARP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES FROM EAST TO
WEST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S OVER INLAND SE GA, TO THE
UPPER 40S OVER COASTAL NE FL.
A LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INLAND SE GA, AND
PATCHY FROST FOR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NE FL.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS
VEERING NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE DAY BREAK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD UP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK LATE TONIGHT, REACHING
KSGJ AROUND 08Z-10Z. THE LOWER CLOUD DECK (2.5-3.5 KFT) WILL
GRADUALLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND INLAND AND REACH ALL COASTAL
AIRFIELDS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL FAVOR A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS.
GUSTS SHOULD TRAIL OFF, BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT, AFTER 21Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY, WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL TRACK AWAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOCAL AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SATURDAY
NE FL HIGH SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...
AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS REMAINING OVER THE AREA PRODUCING MIN RH
VALUES 15-20 PERCENT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CRITICALLY LOW
RH VALUES AND WINDS FROM THE NORTH 10-15 MPH WILL PRODUCE NEAR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS TURNING EASTERLY AND BREEZY BY
AFTERNOON 10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH, BUT WITH MIN RH LEVELS
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. INCREASING SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL
CREATE AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. SUNDAY, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FURTHER INLAND AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WEAKER SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL PRODUCE FAIR DISPERSIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY, A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG T'STORMS
WITH A WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
AREAS OF FROST INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 29 62 43 73 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 44 65 53 72 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 37 68 51 78 / 0 10 0 10
SGJ 47 70 59 77 / 0 0 10 10
GNV 37 71 51 81 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 39 72 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ124-
125-138-233-333.
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GAZ132>136-
149-151-152-163-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ452-
454-472-474.
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