871
FXUS62 KJAX 290103
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
803 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW: UPDATE AND AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS TODAY. BE VERY CAUTIOUS WITH
OUTDOOR FIRES CHECK FOR LOCAL BURN BANS AS SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT INLAND LOCATIONS.
- FREEZE WARNING FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST FL, MAINLY THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. AREAS OF FROST
LIKELY DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES SATURDAY
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY
UPDATE
A SEASONABLE CHILL IN THE AIR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH GRADUALLY MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IN
RESPONSE TO THE MOVEMENT, A MOISTENING RETURN FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THOSE BREEZES ARRIVE,
LIGHT TO CALM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP. MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW
40S AND SOME IN THE UPPER 30S AS OF 730 PM.
THE RAPID TEMPERATURE DECREASE, LIGHT TO CALM WIND, AND LOW
DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO A BROADER LIGHT FREEZE AREA TONIGHT. AS
SUCH THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED EAST TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA AND INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY IN
NORTHEAST FL. SUB- FREEZING TEMPS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS
NORTH OF GAINESVILLE AND WEST OF JACKSONVILLE TONIGHT. THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE OCEAN WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPERATURES
ABOUT AS WARM AS LAST NIGHT, IF NOT A DEGREE OR THREE WARMER, AS
LOWS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS
VEERING NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE DAY BREAK. A DEVELOPING COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BUILD UP A STRATOCUMULUS DECK LATE TONIGHT, REACHING
KSGJ AROUND 08Z-10Z. THE LOWER CLOUD DECK (2.5-3.5 KFT) WILL
GRADUALLY PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND INLAND AND REACH ALL COASTAL
AIRFIELDS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY 13Z. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. PREVAILING WINDS
WILL FAVOR A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS.
GUSTS SHOULD TRAIL OFF, BECOMING MORE INTERMITTENT, AFTER 21Z.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY, WILL BECOME CENTERED TO THE
NORTH TONIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL TRACK AWAY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AS WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOCAL AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: SE GA MODERATE SATURDAY
NE FL HIGH SATURDAY
FIRE WEATHER
...AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON SATURDAY...
MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS TURNING EASTERLY AND BREEZY BY AFTERNOON 10-15 WITH GUSTS
TO 25 MPH, BUT WITH MIN RH LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
INCREASING SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. SUNDAY, LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FURTHER INLAND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WEAKER SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE
FAIR DISPERSIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A
COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY, A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG T'STORMS
WITH A WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...A LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SUWANNEE
VALLEY. AREAS OF FROST LIKELY ON FINE, UNSHELTERED FUELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 28 62 43 73 / 0 0 0 10
SSI 43 65 53 72 / 0 0 10 10
JAX 36 68 51 78 / 0 10 0 10
SGJ 45 70 59 77 / 0 10 10 10
GNV 36 71 51 81 / 0 0 0 10
OCF 38 72 53 80 / 0 0 0 10
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