151
FXUS62 KJAX 290557
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1257 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
FOR THE LATEST NE FL AND SE GA DAILY KEY MESSAGES PLEASE VISIT:
HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDIA/JAX/BRIEFINGS/NWS-JAX-BRIEFING.PDF
- FREEZE WARNING THIS MORNING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GA &
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS NE FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY
- BENEFICIAL RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WARMER TODAY AND CONTINUED BREEZY WITH MORE PASSING CLOUDS. AFTER AN
INLAND MORNING FREEZE AND FROST, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO LOWER 70S TOWARD OUR NORTH-CENTRAL FL ZONES
ROUGHLY FROM GAINESVILLE TOWARD PALATKA SOUTHWARD UNDER BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE DAY AS A COASTAL
TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE. A FEW LIGHT, SPOTTY COASTAL SPRINKLES WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS NORTHWARD UP THE COAST, BUT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
WITH THE INFLUX OF SHALLOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY UNDER EAST WINDS,
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE
I-95 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GA TO THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 40S TONIGHT
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GA TO THE 50S SOUTH OF I-10 TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL RAISE
PWATS JUST OVER AN INCH SUNDAY, INCREASING COLD COVER, HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY BUT A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ABOUT 15-20% ON MONDAY WITH
LOW THUNDER CHANCES OVER LAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NEAR 80 IN NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TUESDAY, A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
BRINGING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY GIVEN HIGH PWATS (1.5-
2.0 INCHES), A LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 40-55 KNOTS, AND A LOW CAPE-HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY AT ABOUT 0.25-0.75
INCHES (HIGHEST OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA), WITH THE NBM SHOWING
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR >1 INCH OVER COFFEE, ATKINSON, AND JEFF
DAVIS COUNTIES. BY LATE EVENING, PRECIPITATION WILL BE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, PAVING THE WAY FOR A COOLER NIGHT. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE CHILLIER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS. AT THIS TIME, LOW
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK ARE ABOVE FREEZING BUT PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FROST FORMATION IS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY ENE
WINDS DEVELOP MID-MORNING SATURDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT TIMES.
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES 4-6 KFT AGL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH THEN BEGINS TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MORPH INTO A LIFTING
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MID-WEEK AS WINDS
SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK TODAY FOR NE FL BEACHES WITH MODERATE
FOR SE GA BEACHES AS ONSHORE/EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPS. ROUGH SURF
AT TIMES WITH BREAKERS 4-5 FT AT FL BEACHES WITH 2-4 FT AT SE GA
BEACHES. MODERATE RISK EXPECTED SUNDAY FOR ALL LOCAL BEACHES AS
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS.
FIRE WEATHER
MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE TO
THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS TURNING EASTERLY AND BREEZY BY AFTERNOON 10-15 WITH GUSTS
TO 25-30 MPH, BUT WITH MIN RH LEVELS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
INCREASING SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF HIGH
DAYTIME DISPERSIONS. SUNDAY, LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FURTHER INLAND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WEAKER SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE
FAIR DISPERSIONS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY, A STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
T'STORMS WITH A WETTING RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 43 72 48 66 / 0 10 10 20
SSI 53 71 56 67 / 10 10 10 10
JAX 51 77 56 71 / 10 10 10 20
SGJ 58 76 61 74 / 10 10 10 20
GNV 52 79 57 76 / 0 10 10 20
OCF 53 79 58 78 / 0 10 10 20
JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ021-023-024-
030-035-120-220-322-422-522.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ124-125-138-
233-333.
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ132>136-149-
151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...NONE.
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