259
FXUS63 KJKL 090755
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND AGAIN
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
FORECAST IS ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING. SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
HIGH CLOUDS IS MAKING FOR ON AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HOURLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE MATCHING UP FAIRLY WELL WITH GRIDS AND ANY
TWEAKS WERE NOT ENOUGH TO SUGGEST OVERNIGHT LOWS REQUIRED ANY KIND
OF ADJUSTMENT. UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. NO UPDATES TO THE
ZONES AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1145 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST THE
INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS.
THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS DEPARTED TO THE
SOUTH. THIS FRONT DID BRING SOME NEEDED RAIN TO THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA BUT MISSED WETTING THE SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT, THE
SOUTHERN VALLEYS SHOULD BE A BIT HARDER TO FOG TONIGHT COMPARED
TO MOST NORMAL FRONTAL PASSAGES AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, THOUGH SOME
FOG ALONG THE RIVER CHANNELS WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH JUST SOME HIGH ONES MOVING
THROUGH NOW THAT THE LOW ONES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAVE
DISSIPATED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE
MID 40S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE THE RIDGES ARE STILL
IN THE MID 50S. THIS IS DUE TO ONLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF FROPA KEEPING THE VALLEYS FROM BEING WELL MIXED AND
ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING CAA -
SETTING UP A SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS,
MEANWHILE, VARY FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST, CLOSER TO THE DRIER
HEART OF THE HIGH, TO THE LOW AND MID 50S SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR THE FOG BUT ALSO TO INCLUDE THE LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST FRI NOV 8 2024
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER FLOW INCREASING RAPIDLY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT USHERING A LOW-LEVEL WARM FRONT QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED LOW CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA AND EXIT INTO
EASTERN TN AND SOUTHWEST VA TONIGHT, WITH JUST PASSING THIN MID- AND
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS PASSING OVER FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE, VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE MID-30S ESPECIALLY IN THE DEEPER NORTHEAST VALLEYS, WITH
LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
SATURDAY TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLEST NORTH OF
AND ALONG I-64 WITH MID-60S, WITH LOWER TO MID-70S ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY TO
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER, WITH THE TERRAIN
ASSISTING IN DEVELOPING A BOUNDARY BETWEEN WEAK DOWNSLOPE DRYING ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE.
THUS, THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT POP AND QPF GRADIENT ACROSS THE
CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET PUSHING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
MILDER THAN TONIGHT'S LOWS WITH 50S PRIMARILY ACROSS THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WE LOOSE ICE AND WE SEE DECENT LIFT
FROM THE FRONT IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL KEEP
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. THEN HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, BUT
AT MOST MAYBE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW THIS WOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WITH UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 40S ON THE
RIDGES.
THIS QUIET WEATHER EXTENDS INTO THE MID-WEEK, THIS AS THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MID-LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSH FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES AND THIS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRY TO SURGE SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE SHOWING PWAT
VALUES LESS THAN 1 INCH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS THERE
HAS BEEN A NOTABLY DRIER TREND IN THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN
TIMING BETWEEN SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN BLOCKING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE NBM FOR POPS RIGHT NOW WHICH ARE
GENERALLY CAPPED AROUND 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE PEAKING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF THIS TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE THESE POP VALUES
DROPPING LOWER. WE SEE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SET IN TO
END THE PERIOD AND HIGHS GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE
LOWER 60S TO FOR MOST ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOCALIZED RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
ANY TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THICKER HIGH
CIRRUS WILL MAKE FOR ON AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THEY
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE SOUTHERLY IN NATURE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION,
OUR WESTERN AIRPORTS, KSME AND KLOZ MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
ENCROACHING THE AREA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY
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