028
FXUS63 KJKL 092020
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
- NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A PRETTY LARGE COMMA CLOUD FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW, CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA. SUBSEQUENT CLOUDS FROM A COLD
FRONT EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO, WHERE TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STALL OUT.
MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING INGESTED
INTO THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
CURRENT RH PERCENTAGES RESIDE IN THE 30-45% RANGE, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SATURATED OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK IN WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MOST PERSISTENT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TAPERING
OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN ISOLATED AREAS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY, BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING MONDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS AREA. ACCORDING TO THE HREF, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/ KENTUCKY 80 CORRIDOR, EAST OF LONDON,
HAVE A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OR MORE FROM THIS
STORM. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/ KENTUCKY 80
CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY GENERALLY HAVE A 40-70%
PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.50 INCHES OR MORE FROM THIS STORM, WITH
PROBABILITIES INCREASING, HEADING NORTH. LASTLY, AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE A 80-90% PROBABILITY OF SEEING AT
LEAST 0.50 INCHES FROM THIS STORM.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE WILL KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST WE LOOSE ICE AND WE SEE DECENT LIFT
FROM THE FRONT IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE LIGHT RAIN
AND EVEN DRIZZLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD BY MONDAY MORNING AND THIS WILL KEEP
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH
THE DAY MONDAY. THEN HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, BUT
AT MOST MAYBE AN INCREASE IN HIGHER CLOUDS. RIGHT NOW THIS WOULD
SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT WITH UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 40S ON THE
RIDGES.
THIS QUIET WEATHER EXTENDS INTO THE MID-WEEK, THIS AS THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT ON MID-LEVEL RIDGING PUSHING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY WE SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSH FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WARM DAY
WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES AND THIS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRY TO SURGE SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER, MANY OF THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE SHOWING PWAT
VALUES LESS THAN 1 INCH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS THERE
HAS BEEN A NOTABLY DRIER TREND IN THE COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE IN
TIMING BETWEEN SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN BLOCKING TO THE EAST. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN HEAVILY TOWARD THE NBM FOR POPS RIGHT NOW WHICH ARE
GENERALLY CAPPED AROUND 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE PEAKING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, IF THIS TREND CONTINUES COULD SEE THESE POP VALUES
DROPPING LOWER. WE SEE ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER SET IN TO
END THE PERIOD AND HIGHS GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THE
LOWER 60S TO FOR MOST ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
KSJS WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS AS
LOCALIZED SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES IN WEST VIRGINIA CONTINUE TO
CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. AUTOMATED AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS AT KSJS
HAVE SHOWN VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 3 MILES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH AN ANTICIPATED WIND SHIFT
FROM EASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AFTER 04Z SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE OHIO VALLEY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
WITH RAINFALL IMPACTING EVERY TERMINAL IN SOME FASHION BEFORE THE
END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP FROM VFR INTO MVFR NEAR THE VERY END AND/OR JUST
BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEYOND 12Z
TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW 20
KNOTS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT SITES KSME AND KSYM FROM
12Z-16Z OR SO, WITH 35-40KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GINNICK
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