708
FXUS63 KJKL 100749
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
249 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
- NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IS SO DRY THAT LITTLE HAS MANAGED TO REACH THE
SURFACE OTHER THAN SPRINKLES. AT THIS TIME, THE ONLY MESONET SITE
IN OUR AREA TO MEASURE HAS BEEN MONTICELLO. HOWEVER, THIS WILL
CHANGE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN UP THROUGH THE
SUNRISE. HOWEVER, QPF IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LEAN SIDE
WHERE WE MANAGE TO MEASURE. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED FOR
RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND THE ZONE PRODUCT HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
FRESHENED UP THE WORDING. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS AS THEY'VE BEEN
LARGELY ON TRACK. HOWEVER, DID LOAD IN THE LATEST SURFACE OBS AND
ADJUSTED THOSE TRENDS. ALSO, TOUCHED UP POP AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. LASTLY, UPDATED
EVENING TEXT AND RADIO PRODUCTS TO REFLECT THE CHANGES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SAT NOV 9 2024
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS A PRETTY LARGE COMMA CLOUD FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW, CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA. SUBSEQUENT CLOUDS FROM A COLD
FRONT EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DOWN INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO, WHERE TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STALL OUT.
MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING INGESTED
INTO THE COLD FRONT LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
CURRENT RH PERCENTAGES RESIDE IN THE 30-45% RANGE, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE SATURATED OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO WORK IN WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MOST PERSISTENT DURING THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, ACROSS AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TAPERING
OFF HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
5-10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN ISOLATED AREAS. SKIES WILL
REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY, BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING MONDAY. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
BLUEGRASS AREA. ACCORDING TO THE HREF, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/ KENTUCKY 80 CORRIDOR, EAST OF LONDON,
HAVE A 50-70% PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.25 INCHES OR MORE FROM THIS
STORM. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY/ KENTUCKY 80
CORRIDOR AND THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY GENERALLY HAVE A 40-70%
PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.50 INCHES OR MORE FROM THIS STORM, WITH
PROBABILITIES INCREASING, HEADING NORTH. LASTLY, AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR HAVE A 80-90% PROBABILITY OF SEEING AT
LEAST 0.50 INCHES FROM THIS STORM.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING EASTWARD AND CRESTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
BRING NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR TUESDAY, AND THEREFORE HIGHS
WILL COME IN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. HOWEVER, THE
FAR SOUTHEAST WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60S
DEGREES. THIS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTHWARD A DRY COLD
FRONT GETS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND
MID TO UPPER 30S ON THE RIDGES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA AND HELP
TO DRIVE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THEN ALL EYES TURN TOWARD A TROUGH WORKING INTO THE MIDWEST BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, AS
MODELING SYSTEMS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEAL WITH BLOCKING TO THE EAST.
THIS SYSTEM ALSO WILL HAVE BOTH A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM
COMPONENT AS THEY PHASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH TWO OF THE CLUSTERS SHOWING A
DRIER SOLUTION TO THE LARGER ENSEMBLE MEAN. EITHER WAY, THE 24-HOUR
PERIOD FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY ARE ONLY SHOWING AROUND
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PWAT VALUES OF LESS THAN 1 INCH IN MOST
CASES IN THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. THEREFORE, SEEING A WETTING RAIN FROM
THIS EVENT DOESN'T LOOK GREAT RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
WETTER ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND EVEN THE SLOWER SOLUTION SEEN IN SOME OF
THE ECMWF DATA WOULD BE HELPFUL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST ROLLS ON INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THIS AS DIFFERING IN PHASING WILL LEAD TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE
DEPTH OF THE RIDGING COMING IN AND ALSO ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE HIGH
PRESSURE. EITHER WAY THE NBM DRIER SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS
POINT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS BACK ABOVE
NORMAL TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS SO DRY THAT LITTLE IS REACHING THE GROUND. WHILE IT WILL
TAKE AWHILE TO MOISTEN UP THE ATMOSPHERE, TERMINALS FURTHER WEST
(KSME, KLOZ, KSYM) WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURING RAINFALL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ON AVERAGE, OUR TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN
VFR TERRITORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, MOST
OF OUR TERMINALS WILL SUCCUMB TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH CIGS
AND VSBYS DROPPING INTO AT LEAST MVFR TERRITORY DURING THE LAST
3-6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. SMOKE IS IMPACTING A FEW OF OUR
TERMINALS, PARTICULARLY KJKL AND KSJS WHERE WILDFIRE SMOKE IS
FILTERING INTO THOSE SITES AND CAUSING PERIODS OF REDUCTION IN
VSBY DOWN INTO MVFR LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR UNTIL
EITHER SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WASH SOME OF THE SMOKE
OUT, OR UNTIL THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW GRADIENT WINDS TO MIX THE SMOKE OUT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSYM THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING TIME
FRAME. THERE WILL ALSO BE A POTENTIAL OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED ENOUGH
THAT ANY IMPACTS ON OUR TERMINALS WOULD BE LOW AND TEMPORARY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY,
CLIMBING TO AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 15-20 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY
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