319  
FXUS63 KJKL 101906 AAC  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
206 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  
 
- NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 206 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024  
 
MOST LOCATIONS FROM THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN AND INTO KY AS  
WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KY WAS FREE OF CONVECTION  
AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR HAVE A  
DECENT HANDLE ON THIS AND IN THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN LOCATIONS,  
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TODAY IS MINIMAL. HOWEVER, AS THE COLD  
FRONT NEARS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACH, CHANCES FOR  
CONVECTION SHOULD PEAK DURING THE EVENING TO A COUPLE OF HOURS  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCES WERE MADE TO HOURLY POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR  
THESE TRENDS WHICH WERE TO LOWER POPS IN THE MORE SOUTHEASTERN  
LOCATIONS UNTIL DARK OR AFTER. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO RUNNING  
WARMER THAN FORECAST AND IN SOME CASES FORECAST HIGHS HAD BEEN  
REACHED OR EXCEEDED. ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WERE MADE  
ACCORDINGLY BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024  
 
STEADIER SHOWERS WERE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY  
AT THIS POINT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST  
OF THE AREA AND EASTERN KY. IN THE WARM SECTOR SOME SCATTERED  
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO WILL  
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION  
LIKELY INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY THIS EVENING IN  
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME  
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY POPS BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS  
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT  
OBSERVATIONS. OVERALL, THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES AT THIS  
POINT.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE AT THIS TIME. H850  
(50-60KTS) AND H925 (30-40KTS) LLJ WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE  
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE  
AND BECOME GUSTY IN RESPONSE TO SOME OF THOSE HIGHER WINDS MIXING  
DOWN. KENTUCKY MESONET OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO REFLECT THIS  
INCREASE WITH RECENT REPORTS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WANING A BIT  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY  
PROVIDED SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TO AS MUCH AS A QUARTER INCH OF  
RAINFALL TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A GOOD  
START TO SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN FOR THE AREA. AFTER A RELATIVE LULL  
IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY, SHOWERS WILL AGAIN  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST  
BARES DOWN ON THE AREA. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO CAPTURE LATEST  
TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THINGS COVERED.  
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED FOR THE  
ZONE PRODUCT AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 337 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024  
 
ALOFT, THE SHORT TERM STARTS OUT WITH WHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT,  
STUBBORN RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A CUTOFF LOW  
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM, THIS LOW  
TRACKS EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN  
QUEBEC, OPENING INTO A TROUGH AS IT PUSHES ACROSS CANADA. THIS  
SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FLATTENS AND  
RETREATS WELL SOUTHWARD OF THE CONUS, ALLOWING THE CORE WESTERLIES  
TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS THE  
SAME PATH AS ITS ASSOCIATED LOW ALOFT, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH. THE COLD FRONT MANAGES TO PASS  
THROUGH AND EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING. A SECOND,  
REINFORCING COLD FRONT DROPS QUICKLY SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FIRST,  
ALMOST REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER FINALLY FEATURES UNSETTLED WEATHER, AND HOPEFULLY A  
WETTER OUTWORN IN THE END THAN MODELS HAVE ADVERTISED THUS  
FAR...AS QPF IS CONCERNED. QPF IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE OF THE SHORT  
TERM. MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AT BEST WITH  
CONSIDERABLE SWINGS IN OVERALL QPF THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. THUS FAR  
ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND MOISTENED UP THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER SO THAT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REALIZED.  
ACTUALLY, THE KENTUCKY MESONET SHOWS A LARGE PORTION OF THE  
FORECAST AREA HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SOME RAIN, THOUGH LIGHT IN  
NATURE...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THUS  
FAR, THE ONLY AREAS NOT TO HAVE MEASURED ARE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE  
FAR SOUTHEAST, STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM WHITLEY/BELL COUNTIES  
NORTHEAST TO PIKE. CONSIDERING THAT SOLUTIONS ARE UNDERPERFORMING  
SO FAR PROVIDES SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WE COULD SEE A SOLID  
WETTING RAIN BEFORE THE SHORT TERM WRAPS UP. AT THIS TIME, TOTALS  
ON THE ORDER OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AND UPWARDS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH OVER OUR  
BLUEGRASS COUNTIES. THE LATEST LREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A  
70-100% CHANCE OF GETTING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL OVER THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, AND A 40-60% CHANCE OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH  
OF TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
60-100% ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS IS VERY PROMISING FOR  
THE AREA TO FINALLY GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD THIS PAN  
OUT. TOTALS WOULD BE AIDED IF WE MANAGE TO GET ANY THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER, OVERALL PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER REMAIN LOW  
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
LONG TERM  
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 249 AM EST SUN NOV 10 2024  
 
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
SETTLING EASTWARD AND CRESTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL  
BRING NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE FOR TUESDAY, AND THEREFORE HIGHS  
WILL COME IN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN THE  
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 50S. HOWEVER, THE  
FAR SOUTHEAST WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 60S  
DEGREES. THIS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTHWARD A DRY COLD  
FRONT GETS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS  
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS AND  
MID TO UPPER 30S ON THE RIDGES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  
 
THIS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST BY  
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK TO THE AREA AND HELP  
TO DRIVE AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.  
THEN ALL EYES TURN TOWARD A TROUGH WORKING INTO THE MIDWEST BY  
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT, AS  
MODELING SYSTEMS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEAL WITH BLOCKING TO THE EAST.  
THIS SYSTEM ALSO WILL HAVE BOTH A SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM  
COMPONENT AS THEY PHASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE CLUSTER  
ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH TWO OF THE CLUSTERS SHOWING A  
DRIER SOLUTION TO THE LARGER ENSEMBLE MEAN. EITHER WAY, THE 24-HOUR  
PERIOD FROM 7 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY ARE ONLY SHOWING AROUND  
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF  
RAIN. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY PWAT VALUES OF LESS THAN 1 INCH IN MOST  
CASES IN THE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. THEREFORE, SEEING A WETTING RAIN FROM  
THIS EVENT DOESN'T LOOK GREAT RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME  
WETTER ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND EVEN THE SLOWER SOLUTION SEEN IN SOME OF  
THE ECMWF DATA WOULD BE HELPFUL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  
 
THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST ROLLS ON INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
THIS AS DIFFERING IN PHASING WILL LEAD TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE  
DEPTH OF THE RIDGING COMING IN AND ALSO ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE HIGH  
PRESSURE. EITHER WAY THE NBM DRIER SOLUTION SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS  
POINT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING HIGHS BACK ABOVE  
NORMAL TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024  
 
AS OF ISSUANCE TIME, A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION WAS TAKING  
PLACE FOR ALL BUT KSYM WITH VFR PREVAILING OVER EASTERN KY AND  
SOUTH CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER, BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z, SHOWERS WILL  
AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR  
WEST AND NORTHWEST NEARS PRECEDING A MID AND UPPER LEVEL  
DISTURBANCES WITH VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SOME CASES. FROM  
ABOUT 20Z IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO AS LATE AT 05Z TO 06Z, A BAND OF  
MVFR AND FIR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS  
THE AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE  
ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH  
TO INCLUDE EVEN VCTS AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE 6 TO 12KT RANGE WITH SOME  
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE  
FRONT, STARTING AROUND 04Z IN THE WEST AND AROUND 09Z IN THE FAR  
EASTERN LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT, CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO  
MVFR AND THEN VFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR FORECAST TO RETURN  
TO ALL AREAS BY 15Z.  
 
 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...JP  
SHORT TERM...RAY  
LONG TERM...DJ  
AVIATION...JP  
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