566
FXUS63 KJKL 102125
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE
PRE DAWN HOURS OF MONDAY.
- NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED NORTHEAST
OF BERMUDA AND THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH TO THE EAST
OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED IN
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
SOUTH TO THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE VICINITY OF THE OZARKS TO
NORTHEAST TX. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NORTHWEST TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
MEANWHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FURTHER UPSTREAM WAS MOVING OVER THE
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN AREA TO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO EASTERN TX. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND EXTENDED INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. FURTHER UPSTREAM
ANOTHER SFC LOW IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW WELL
UPSTREAM OVER CANADA WAS CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO AND MANITOBA
BORDER WITH A COLD FRONT RAILING INTO ND AND MT. CONVECTION WAS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST COLD
FRONT.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO WHILE THE ASSOCIATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES EAST TO THE NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR BY DAWN ON MONDAY WHILE THE RIDGING FORM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/TX TO THE ROCKIES AT PRESENT BUILDS TOWARD THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TREK INTO
QUEBEC WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
APPALACHIANS TO NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAWN ON MONDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
BEHIND THIS FRONT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW SHOULD
MOVE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF ONTARIO AND QUEBEC TO
THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NORTHEAST AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. ANOTHER SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD PRECEDE THIS WITH THE
BOUNDARY SAGGING TO NEAR THE OH RIVER ON MONDAY EVENING AND THEN
SOUTH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BUILD SOUTH INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, THE AXIS OF WHICH
SHOULD NEAR THE MS VALLEY BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY OVER THE
OH VALLEY FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF NEUTRAL HEIGHT TENDENCIES ON
MONDAY, 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
INTERACT WITH A RATHER MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
EASTERN KY CHARACTERIZED BY PW ON THE ORDER OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
AND PRODUCED SOME CONVECTION WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY BE
MINIMAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
NEARER TO THE VA AND WV BORDERS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
AREAS LATE IN THE EVENING/AFTER DARK TO PICK UP MEASURABLE
RAINFALL. CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST THAT SOME AREAS SOUTH OF THE
MTN PARKWAY IN BETWEEN WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS PASS MAY
RECEIVE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH THOUGH ON AVERAGE AN
ADDITIONAL TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IS ANTICIPATED.
DRIER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING FOR
MONDAY. THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE ONLY VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BE WIND DIRECTION TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND DRIER AIR BEING USHERED IN THE
REGION.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
BY TUESDAY MORNING A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM EAST
OF THE ROCKIES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE HAS
ITS AXIS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE PROVINCES OF NORTHERN
MANITOBA, AND WESTERN ONTARIO.
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY, AND MOST OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S UNDER LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL AID
IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S, WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW 30S.
WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH IN THE WEST BEGINS ITS
PROGRESSION INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE EXITING TO THE EAST, WILL VEER WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY, AS THE APPROACHING SYSTEM DRAWS ON MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO. CURRENTLY DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY BEFORE MODERATING INTO THE 40S OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY HEADING INTO THE EVENING. AS NIGHTFALL APPROACHES,
SO DOES A COLD FRONT, BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE AREA, CLOSE TO
MIDNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 40S. THURSDAY, OFF AND
ON SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, TAPERING OFF HEADING INTO
THE EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER, NEAR 60 IN MOST SPOTS. LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. JUST OVER HALF OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS IN THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS FAVOR A WETTER SOLUTION WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE PROBABILITY OF THE AREA SEEING A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE RANGES FROM 44% TO 61%. HOWEVER ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS SOLUTION. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO
MODERATE DUE TO THIS VARIABILITY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FROM
THE WEST, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS EACH OF THOSE DAYS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE MID 60S BY SATURDAY. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT ANOTHER UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT BRINGING SHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SUN NOV 10 2024
AS OF ISSUANCE TIME, A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTION WAS TAKING
PLACE FOR ALL BUT KSYM WITH VFR PREVAILING OVER EASTERN KY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER, BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z, SHOWERS WILL
AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR
WEST AND NORTHWEST NEARS PRECEDING A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WITH VFR DETERIORATING TO MVFR IN SOME CASES. FROM
ABOUT 20Z IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO AS LATE AT 05Z TO 06Z, A BAND OF
MVFR AND FIR CEILINGS AND OR VISIBILITIES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED AND CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE EVEN VCTS AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE 6 TO 12KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT. MAINLY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT, STARTING AROUND 04Z IN THE WEST AND AROUND 09Z IN THE FAR
EASTERN LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT, CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO
MVFR AND THEN VFR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MVFR FORECAST TO RETURN
TO ALL AREAS BY 15Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP
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