112
FXUS63 KJKL 112035
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND,
EXCEPT TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWER TO ARRIVE FROM
AROUND THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY SOUTH. THIS HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
THERE TO RISE TO OR ABOVE THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS. UPWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE MADE ACROSS
THIS REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1051 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN AND CLEARING SKIES OVER
EASTERN KY. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE
AND SKY GRIDS BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, NO ADDITIONAL
CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
THE COLD FRONT PASSED KJKL A LITTLE BEFORE 12Z, AND IT'S STILL
DEMARCATED VERY WELL ON RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. PRECIP HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE'S BEEN NO REGENERATION THIS FAR
WEST ALONG THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIP HAS BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FIRST PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EST MON NOV 11 2024
A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE
ADVANCING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS COMBO SUPPORTED SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHT, WITH MOST
OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY NOW IN FAR SOUTHEAST KY. THE COLD FRONT
IS UNUSUALLY WELL DEFINED BOTH WITH A WIND SHIFT AND A FINE LINE
SHOWING ON RADAR. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. WON'T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING
UP AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, AND AT LEAST A 20% POP HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF IT, BUT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY EARLY THIS
MORNING REMAINS WITH THE EXITING ACTIVITY NEAR VA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE FROPA BEING EFFECTIVE AT BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES, AND MODELS SUGGEST THAT WILL BE THE CASE EVEN IN
OUR AREA TODAY (UNLIKE MANY TIMES IN THE COOL SEASON).
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SHOW A MODEST DROP FROM YESTERDAY, BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE MUCH MORE RESPONSIVE, FALLING FROM AROUND 60
OVERNIGHT TO THE 40S TODAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER MN AND WI AND ASSOCIATED WITH
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IN THAT AREA, WILL HEAD SOUTHEAST AND IS
FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH KY TONIGHT. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS
IT COMES THROUGH. WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE FIRST
FRONT, NOTHING MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME STRATOCU IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SECOND FROPA. BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT, STILL COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL ARRIVE FOR THE DAY TUESDAY.
HAVE MAINTAINED CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT BY
INCLUDING A BIT OF VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING ITS OCCURRENCE OR EXTENT. THE GROUND IS CURRENTLY DAMP
FROM THE RAIN WHICH IS ENDING, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY
FOR DRYING TODAY. WE NO LONGER HAVE ANY SUBSTANTIVE TRANSPIRATION,
SO ANY ADDITION OF MOISTURE WILL NEED TO COME FROM STREAMS OR THE
GROUND. COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT WILL
INHIBIT DECOUPLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, WON'T RULE OUT
GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS OVERCOMING THIS AND ALLOWING DEEPER
VALLEYS TO TRY DECOUPLING AND POSSIBLY FOGGING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A HIGH AMPLITUDE, PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES, OR MAIN
CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST STEERING WINDS GENERALLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE HEART OF THE CONUS. WE START THE EXTENDED WITH RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. UNLIKE
PREVIOUS STORM SYSTEMS OF LATE, THIS TROUGH HAS NO ISSUES WITH THE
RIDGE OVER THE EAST, AND MOVES EASTWARD WITH EAST INTO THE MIDWEST
AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS OUR REGION AT A FAST
CLIP, WITH THE AXIS PASSING EAST OF OUR AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY
THURSDAY. RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND REMAINS THERE
UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, CLEARING THE AREA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT IS QUITE
POTENT AND FORMS OVER THE PLAINS BY THE START OF THE PERIOD, THEN IN
QUICK FASHION REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN TRANSITS THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD,
WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT MANAGES TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE COMMONWEALTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES AN UPTICK IN ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION, MAINLY DUE TO THE POLAR JET DROPPING FURTHER SOUTH. THE
REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS
THE SURFACE FRONT RACES EASTWARD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. PWATS INCREASE RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CLIMB TO BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY THE TIME IT ENTERS OUR AREA. A 50KT PLUS H850 JET
STREAK NOSING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH
GOOD DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP PRODUCE SOME GOOD LIFT IN
THE COLUMN ABOVE THE REGION. ALL SAID THIS WILL HELP SET THE TABLE
SYNOPTICALLY FOR FAVORABLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. ONE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH OUR AREA. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILISTIC DATA SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS THE PROBABILITY OF
GTE 0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IS BETWEEN
55-75%. PROBABILITIES OF GTE 0.25 INCHES IS BETWEEN 80 AND 90%. SO
THIS NEXT SYSTEM COULD TURN OUT TO BE A SOLID WETTING RAIN, AND
POSSIBLY SOAKING RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT SORELY NEED THE RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST MON NOV 11 2024
VFR WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME WITH CUMULUS
BETWEEN 4 AND 5KFT AGL PRESENT FROM NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF A KSJS
TO KJKL TO KLOZ TO KSME LINE. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY MIX
OUT/DISSIPATE THROUGH 23Z. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL LOW AND MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z NEAR
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 02Z AND 10Z. VFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
WITH THIS, AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT GENERALLY UNDER 10KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND SHOULD SHIFT FROM WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES AND THEN TREND TO THE
NORTHEAST TO END THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN DEEPER VALLEYS GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE MTN PKWY WITH REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR IS PROBABLE
DURING THE 03Z TO 13Z PERIOD, BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT
TAF SITES.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP
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