328
FXUS63 KJKL 122058
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN FROM
WED NIGHT TO THU EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRI, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SLIGHT UPTICK TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAHAMAS WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER WEST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ANOTHER TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THAT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER AND EXTENDED SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS AND
EASTERN KY. FURTHER WEST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN
THE SD VICINITY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO
NM.
THIS EVENING TO WEDNESDAY, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST, REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO
WESTERN QUEBEC BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA TO THE CAROLINAS TO LAKE ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC LINE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE QUICK MOVING TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. A PRECEDING LEAD SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS EASTERN KY ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE MS RIVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHILE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE SFC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
BOTH MOVE FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MID MS/MO VALLEY AREA AND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARS THE MID MS TO EASTERN TX AREA. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE. PW IS PROGGED PER THE HREF
TO CLIMB FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES THIS EVENING TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BY THE EARLY EVENING TO 0.3 INCHES NEAR
THE WV BORDER AND IN AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES
NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WORKING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TO NEAR CHICAGO/SOUTH END OF LAKE MI LATE WHILE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN KY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MS VICINITY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MID
LEVEL WAVE PW SHOULD CLIMB FURTHER TO 1.1 TO 1.3 IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD OMEGA ANTICIPATED WITH SOME
JET DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
LEADING TO GOOD OMEGA WITHIN THE COLUMN. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE LATE, WITH 1.1 TO 1.2 INCH PW IN THE FAR EAST AND 0.7 TO
0.9 INCH RANGE IN THE WEST NEAR DAWN ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AREAWIDE AND WITH
THE EXPECTED FORCING, A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
12Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF ABOUT 40 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE AND 85 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF 0.25 INCHES OR MORE AREAWIDE BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.
FOLLOWING A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EAST. WITH THIS IN MIND, OPTED TO
GO WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NBM DETERMINISTIC IN THAT
AREA ALONG WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS HEDGING TOWARD THE LOWER NBM
PERCENTILES AS WELL. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, HIGHS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN NBM DETERMINISTIC FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
THE EXTENDED WILL START OFF QUITE ACTIVE, AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE, AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, SPRAWLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, AND
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
WEST OF THE HIGH OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE TAKING SHAPE AND
MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH ANOTHER WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST MID-WEEK, BRINGING RAIN TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. AFTER THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST
EARLY FRIDAY, THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO OUR AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON TAP AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE
WEEKEND RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST TO
BEGIN THE NEW WORK, AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. NO WEATHER HAZARDS
EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AVIATION FORECAST PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.
FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BETWEEN ABOUT 04Z
AND 13Z, WITH SOME REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR IFR THOUGH TAF SITES WILL
NOT BE AFFECTED. WINDS MOST OF THE TIME WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
HOWEVER, NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND
WITH A SLIGHT IN BUMP IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10KT
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. AN UPTICK IN WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 5KT SHOULD OCCUR TO END THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
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