012
FXUS63 KJKL 130821
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
321 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOLID CHANCES FOR RAIN TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN UPTICK TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH JUST THE INCLUSION OF
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED INTO THE MID 30S IN THE COLDEST
SHELTERED VALLEYS LATE THIS EVENING WHILE MOST OTHER LOCATIONS
RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. NIGHTTIME MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WAS DROPPED A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-75. NOW EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM 29 TO 37 IN THE
SHELTERED COALFIELD VALLEYS, 33 TO 38 IN BROADER VALLEYS WEST OF
I-75 AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS, AND 37 TO 41 ON THERMAL BELT
RIDGES/SLOPES. FOG IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS OF
MAINSTEM RIVERS AND LARGER TRIBUTARIES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE EXPECTED SKY COVER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 PM EST TUE NOV 12 2024
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAHAMAS WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE
EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES. FURTHER WEST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS VICINITY TO
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH ANOTHER TROUGH UPSTREAM OF THAT OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BORDER AND EXTENDED SOUTH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OH AND TN VALLEY REGIONS AND
EASTERN KY. FURTHER WEST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN
THE SD VICINITY WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO
NM.
THIS EVENING TO WEDNESDAY, THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT EAST, REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO
WESTERN QUEBEC BY DAWN ON WEDNESDAY. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE FL PENINSULA TO THE CAROLINAS TO LAKE ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC LINE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE QUICK MOVING TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. A PRECEDING LEAD SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEYS ON WEDNESDAY AND CROSS EASTERN KY ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE MS RIVER
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WHILE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO A RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT. THE SFC RIDGE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
BOTH MOVE FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WHILE THE SFC LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE MID MS/MO VALLEY AREA AND THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT NEARS THE MID MS TO EASTERN TX AREA. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT SHOULD ALSO LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE. PW IS PROGGED PER THE HREF
TO CLIMB FROM 0.2 TO 0.3 INCHES THIS EVENING TO 0.3 TO 0.5 INCHES
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BY THE EARLY EVENING TO 0.3 INCHES NEAR
THE WV BORDER AND IN AREAS OF FAR EASTERN KY TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES
NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WORKING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING WHILE THE SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO TRACK TO NEAR CHICAGO/SOUTH END OF LAKE MI LATE WHILE
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN KY TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MS VICINITY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE MID
LEVEL WAVE PW SHOULD CLIMB FURTHER TO 1.1 TO 1.3 IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD OMEGA ANTICIPATED WITH SOME
JET DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
LEADING TO GOOD OMEGA WITHIN THE COLUMN. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE LATE, WITH 1.1 TO 1.2 INCH PW IN THE FAR EAST AND 0.7 TO
0.9 INCH RANGE IN THE WEST NEAR DAWN ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AREAWIDE AND WITH
THE EXPECTED FORCING, A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
12Z HREF PROBABILITIES OF ABOUT 40 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR A HALF
OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR MORE AND 85 TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PROBABILITY
OF 0.25 INCHES OR MORE AREAWIDE BY DAWN ON THURSDAY.
FOLLOWING A MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TONIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW
INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY THE EAST. WITH THIS IN MIND, OPTED TO
GO WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NBM DETERMINISTIC IN THAT
AREA ALONG WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS HEDGING TOWARD THE LOWER NBM
PERCENTILES AS WELL. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, HIGHS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING A BIT HIGHER THAN NBM DETERMINISTIC FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST, A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS.
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT TO START THINGS OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL STEADILY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY, AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING EAST, WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW, WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW ANY STORMS TO OCCUR WITH EITHER SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
IN THE UPPER 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTH. NO WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE AVIATION
FORECAST PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH BETTER
CHANCES JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE FOUND IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH 13Z WITH LOCAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR
IFR, THOUGH TAF SITES WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING BEFORE
AN UPTICK FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS OCCURS BY THE
AFTERNOON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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