211
FXUS63 KJKL 132055
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHOT OF WETTING RAINS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SAT, BEFORE TRENDING TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN FL WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH
TO THE FOUR CORNER TO EASTERN MT AND INTO CANADA WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH WAS NEARING THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN QUEBEC TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO GA AND FL WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
EAST FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN KY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN
TO EASTERN TN AND WAS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT MEANWHILE EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN TX WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT EXTENDING FROM
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX. LOCALLY,
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND A
LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT IS WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY. THE DRY AIRMASS LINGERING FROM THE DEPARTING RIDGING
WITH PW CURRENTLY RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.25 IN EASTERN PIKE COUNTY
TO NEAR 0.7 INCHES NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST TN AND
SW VA HAS ALLOWED SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70
DEGREES OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS/UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS TO THE WEST OF EASTERN TONIGHT. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL IL VICINITY NEAR DAWN ON
THURSDAY. A PLUME OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD NEAR CHICAGO AROUND DAWN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVING LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KY TO MIDDLE TN
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS VICINITY AT THAT POINT. PW IS PROGGED PER
THE 12Z HREF TO CLIMB TO THE 0.6 INCH FAR EASTERN CWA TO 1.4
INCHES NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN PEAK IN
THE 1.1 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
RATHER ROBUST OMEGA IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS MOIST LAYER AHEAD OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AS SOME PVA COMBINES WITH WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALREADY HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST OF
CENTRAL KY BY DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH THE
AXIS OF THIS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WORKING EAST OF EASTERN KY BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PW IS PROGGED TO DROP TO 0.6 YO 0.75 BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR OR
POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING PER
RECENT RAP RUNS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 300 J/KG
AND MUCAPE A BIT HITHER THAN THAT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA INTO OH WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
VA/NORTHEASTERN NC AREA WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS LATE FOLLOWING
THE PASS OF A SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING HREF TO FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY TO RECEIVE A GOOD SOAKING. BY 7 PM EST ON THURSDAY THE 12Z
HREF PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS 70 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES ARE
DOWNWIND OF BLACK MOUNTAIN AND PINE MOUNTAIN IN RAIN SHADOWED
AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN HARLAN COUNTY OVER INTO LETCHER AND SOUTHERN
PERRY COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES TO AT LEAST AN INCH BY THAT POINT
PER THE 12Z HREF ARE IN THE 30 PERCENT TO 100 PERCENT RANG WITH
THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES IN THE SAME RAIN SHADOWED AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND,
NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY AND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EST WED NOV 13 2024
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVE OUT OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. FURTHER TO THE WEST, A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL BE
IN PLACE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND WESTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY. ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED
OVER THE WEST COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS.
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT TO START THINGS OFF THURSDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL STEADILY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST ON
FRIDAY, AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT TO OUR EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, AND WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING EAST, WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO
THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE PARENT LOW, WHICH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW ANY STORMS TO OCCUR WITH EITHER SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
IN THE UPPER 60S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE SOUTH. NO WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
COLD FRONT BEING TO APPROACH. SOME REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITY TO MVFR IN SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z AS MID AND THEN LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. THEREAFTER, A DETERIORATION IN CEILINGS TO
MVFR SHOULD OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH 12Z WITHIN AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN
IFR LEVELS AT TIMES. MVFR CEILINGS AND SPOTTY IFR CEILINGS WITH
SOME MVFR AND IFR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY SHOULD PREVAIL DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITHIN
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF LATE IN THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IN AREAL EXTENT AND
TIMING WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KT THROUGH ABOUT 06Z, BEFORE
TRENDING TO THE SOUTH OR EVENT SOUTHWEST NEAR KSME TO END THE
PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
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