333
FXUS63 KJKL 140906
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
406 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE
TRENDING TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
MAINLY UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND THUNDER
CHANCES PER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND CAMS TRENDS THROUGH DAWN,
CAPTURING THE CURRENT OCCASIONAL BOLT IN OUR NORTHEAST. DID ALSO
INCLUDE THE LATEST OBS AND TENDENCIES FOR THE T/TD GRIDS IN THE
NEAR TERM FOR THIS UPDATE. THESE ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE ZONES AND
SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
UPDATED FORECAST INCLUDES THE MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALSO INCREASED AND EXPANDED POPS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. THEN, AS LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, WIDESPREAD
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLE
LIGHTNING/THUNDER) SHOULD FILL IN OVER THE AREA AS WARM MOIST
ADVECTION INCREASES.
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO POPS AND QPF TO REFLECT THE LATEST
OBSERVED AND MODEL TRENDS. THE MOST RECENT TEMPERATURE, WIND, AND
MOISTURE READINGS WERE USED FOR THE INITIALIZATION TO THE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED NOV 13 2024
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED IN THE
VICINITY OF SOUTHERN FL WITH THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE EXTENDING INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDED FROM WEST OF HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
ARKLATEX VICINITY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTH
TO THE FOUR CORNER TO EASTERN MT AND INTO CANADA WHILE ANOTHER
TROUGH WAS NEARING THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM EASTERN QUEBEC TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO GA AND FL WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF KANSAS CITY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED
EAST FROM THE LOW INTO WESTERN KY TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OF TN
TO EASTERN TN AND WAS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. A
COLD FRONT MEANWHILE EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN TX WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT EXTENDING FROM
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX. LOCALLY,
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND A
LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT IS WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGIONS. CONVECTION IS ALSO OCCURRING WEST
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA WITH SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE AND THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KY. THE DRY AIRMASS LINGERING FROM THE DEPARTING RIDGING
WITH PW CURRENTLY RANGING FROM ABOUT 0.25 IN EASTERN PIKE COUNTY
TO NEAR 0.7 INCHES NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WITH A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OFF OF HIGHER TERRAIN NORTHEAST TN AND
SW VA HAS ALLOWED SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70
DEGREES OR ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER.
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK
NORTHEAST AND ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WHILE THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS/UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS TO THE WEST OF EASTERN TONIGHT. THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL IL VICINITY NEAR DAWN ON
THURSDAY. A PLUME OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SFC
SYSTEM. THIS SFC LOW SHOULD NEAR CHICAGO AROUND DAWN ON THURSDAY
WITH THE WARM FRONT HAVING LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN KY TO MIDDLE TN
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MS VICINITY AT THAT POINT. PW IS PROGGED PER
THE 12Z HREF TO CLIMB TO THE 0.6 INCH FAR EASTERN CWA TO 1.4
INCHES NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN PEAK IN
THE 1.1 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
RATHER ROBUST OMEGA IS EXPECTED WITHIN THIS MOIST LAYER AHEAD OF
THE 500 MB TROUGH AS SOME PVA COMBINES WITH WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS.
THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALREADY HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT EAST OF
CENTRAL KY BY DAWN ON THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OH VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH THE
AXIS OF THIS ASSOCIATED TROUGH WORKING EAST OF EASTERN KY BY
THURSDAY EVENING. PW IS PROGGED TO DROP TO 0.6 YO 0.75 BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE COLDER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO NEAR OR
POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING PER
RECENT RAP RUNS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE OF AROUND 100 TO 300 J/KG
AND MUCAPE A BIT HITHER THAN THAT. THIS SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER AS THE SFC LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE
AREA INTO OH WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY FROM
MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
VA/NORTHEASTERN NC AREA WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS LATE FOLLOWING
THE PASS OF A SHORTWAVE DURING THE EVENING HREF TO FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
UPSLOPE/INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
A WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS
LIKELY TO RECEIVE A GOOD SOAKING. BY 7 PM EST ON THURSDAY THE 12Z
HREF PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS 70 TO NEAR 100
PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES ARE
DOWNWIND OF BLACK MOUNTAIN AND PINE MOUNTAIN IN RAIN SHADOWED
AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN HARLAN COUNTY OVER INTO LETCHER AND SOUTHERN
PERRY COUNTIES. PROBABILITIES TO AT LEAST AN INCH BY THAT POINT
PER THE 12Z HREF ARE IN THE 30 PERCENT TO 100 PERCENT RANG WITH
THE LOWEST PROBABILITIES IN THE SAME RAIN SHADOWED AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR LAKE CUMBERLAND,
NORTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY AND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN - TWO LARGE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING OFF THE
COASTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE
EASTERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. ANOTHER VERY LARGE
AND WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING
EAST JUST INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING, AND SHOULD BE
GONE BY AROUND 3Z. AFTER THAT, THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL FINALLY BE
FREE TO EXPAND/MOVE TO THE EAST, AND OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE
ECMWF, GFS, AND WPC GUIDANCE ALL HAVE THE CENTRAL TROUGH STALLING
OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFYING AS IT SPINS
IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST, AND WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE TROUGH SPINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. BASED ON
THE LATEST MODEL DATA, IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MIGHT SUPPORT MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS
AND AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THOSE TWO NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT,
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED NEARLY OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS
A LARGE TROUGH LINGERS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR NORMAL TO
START THINGS OFF, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY, BUT
SHOULD WARM INTO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. NO WEATHER
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024
ANY REMAINING VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR
LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AVIATION FORECAST AREA.
PARTIAL CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDER MAY ALSO OCCUR WITHIN THE
CURRENT SHOWERS INTO DAWN, THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN AREAL
EXTENT AND TIMING OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN ANY OF THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z, BEFORE
TRENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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