990  
FXUS63 KJKL 142012  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
312 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE  
TRENDING TO NEAR 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
- RAIN RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
- A COOLER PATTERN ARRIVES BY LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024  
 
WE ARE SEEING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUE TO  
WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SPARKED OFF  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME BREAKS LEADING TO  
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER  
GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE, WITH MORE SIGNAL SHOWING UP IN AREAS MAINLY  
NORTH OF I-64. GIVEN THIS FOCUSED THE CHANCES OF THUNDER THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE  
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ONCE WE LOOSE THE  
DAYTIME HEATING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCLUDING HREF DRIVEN DATA  
THEN TRANSITION THIS TO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE  
SCENARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH LITTLE  
SPREAD. THIS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN  
INVERSION ALOFT. THEREFORE WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER  
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL FORECAST TO PROGRESS  
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRY US OUT  
SOME BUT SOME DATA INDICATES THAT WE COULD SEE THE DRIZZLE  
CONTINUING A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER, WE WILL AT LEAST KEEP THE  
LOW STRATUS AROUND THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL DAY, WITH THE  
INVERSION STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS ONCE AGAIN  
KEPT THE SKY A LITTLE HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY THAN NBM. IN LIGHT OF  
THIS, ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A LITTLE, WITH AFTERNOON  
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN THAT WE KEEP THIS STRATUS  
DECK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP IN THE  
CAMS. ALSO, THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND THIS WOULD FURTHER PUSH THIS STRATUS  
DOWNWARD. EVEN SO, KEPT SOME FOG IN THERE FRIDAY NIGHT BECAUSE  
ANY CLEARING COULD RESULT IN RIVER VALLEY FOG AT A MINIMUM, BUT  
THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO, IF WE DON'T CLEAR EXPECT  
FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 406 AM EST THU NOV 14 2024  
 
LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN - TWO LARGE TROUGHS WILL BE MOVING OFF THE  
COASTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE  
PERIOD. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE  
EASTERN OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO  
THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. ANOTHER VERY LARGE  
AND WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING  
EAST JUST INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW  
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING, AND SHOULD BE  
GONE BY AROUND 3Z. AFTER THAT, THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL FINALLY BE  
FREE TO EXPAND/MOVE TO THE EAST, AND OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN THIRD OF  
THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF THE UPCOMING WORK  
WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUR WAY OUT OF THE  
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT  
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE  
ECMWF, GFS, AND WPC GUIDANCE ALL HAVE THE CENTRAL TROUGH STALLING  
OUT SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTENSIFYING AS IT SPINS  
IN PLACE. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE RIDGE OFF TO OUR EAST, AND WILL  
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN BACK TO OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE TROUGH SPINS IN PLACE TO OUR WEST. BASED ON  
THE LATEST MODEL DATA, IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT MIGHT SUPPORT MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLITS  
AND AREAS OF VALLEY FOG THOSE TWO NIGHTS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT,  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SITUATED NEARLY OVERHEAD.  
 
WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, AS  
A LARGE TROUGH LINGERS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR NORMAL TO  
START THINGS OFF, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY, BUT  
SHOULD WARM INTO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER  
70S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW  
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WIDESPREAD  
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES  
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH  
AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. NO WEATHER  
HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024  
 
WE ARE SEE A COMBINATION OF IFR AND MVFR AT MOST SITES THIS  
AFTERNOON. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON WHERE MOST SITES SHOULD AT LEAST GET TOWARD THE HIGH END  
OF MVFR. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, POST FRONTAL  
STRATUS AND EVEN SOME MIST WILL SETTLE IN THIS EVENING GENERALLY  
AFTER 2Z AND WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST IFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY LOWER. AN  
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN THIS EVENING INTO  
FRIDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS STRATUS DECK GETS  
CAUGHT BENEATH THE INVERSION. GIVEN THIS EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CIGS  
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL THE PERIOD AS MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. THE  
WINDS WILL UPTICK THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE OUT OF THE  
SOUTH AND WEST ESPECIALLY WHERE WE SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.  
WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW 15-18 KNOT GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
THESE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND LIGHT A VARIABLE WINDS WILL  
SETTLE IN.  
 

 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DJ  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...DJ  
 
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