369
FXUS63 KJKL 150928
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE
TRENDING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A COOLER PATTERN IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH MAINLY JUST THE
INCLUSION OF THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD GRIDS AND
CONTINUING THE DRIZZLE MENTION. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH A FRESHENING OF THE
SAFS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1031 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
LATE EVENING UPDATE IS OUT. EXPANDED 15 POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS UPDATE, AND ALSO EXPANDED THE AREAL
EXTENT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE GRIDS AND TEXT FORECASTS. WITH
CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS, LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW CURRENT READINGS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 600 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
EARLY EVENING UPDATE IS OUT TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, AND ALSO TO FINE-TUNE POPS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EST THU NOV 14 2024
WE ARE SEEING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUE TO
WORK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SPARKED OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME BREAKS LEADING TO
STEEPER LAPSE RATES. WE HAVE NOT SEEN MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDER
GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE, WITH MORE SIGNAL SHOWING UP IN AREAS MAINLY
NORTH OF I-64. GIVEN THIS FOCUSED THE CHANCES OF THUNDER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON IN THESE AREA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ONCE WE LOOSE THE
DAYTIME HEATING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCLUDING HREF DRIVEN DATA
THEN TRANSITION THIS TO MORE OF A LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE
SCENARIO THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND WITH LITTLE
SPREAD. THIS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GETS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN
INVERSION ALOFT. THEREFORE WENT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS WELL FORECAST TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRY US OUT
SOME BUT SOME DATA INDICATES THAT WE COULD SEE THE DRIZZLE
CONTINUING A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER, WE WILL AT LEAST KEEP THE
LOW STRATUS AROUND THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL DAY, WITH THE
INVERSION STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS ONCE AGAIN
KEPT THE SKY A LITTLE HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY THAN NBM. IN LIGHT OF
THIS, ALSO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A LITTLE, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT, THERE REMAINS SOME CONCERN THAT WE KEEP THIS STRATUS
DECK INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT SHOWING UP IN THE
CAMS. ALSO, THE INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND THIS WOULD FURTHER PUSH THIS STRATUS
DOWNWARD. EVEN SO, KEPT SOME FOG IN THERE FRIDAY NIGHT BECAUSE
ANY CLEARING COULD RESULT IN RIVER VALLEY FOG AT A MINIMUM, BUT
THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ALSO, IF WE DON'T CLEAR EXPECT
FAIRLY UNIFORM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TAKING
PLACE. AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO THIS SURFACE HIGH BEING IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER-60S. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL BRING A PATTERN SHIFT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS, IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SAG SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL DIVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER AND STALL OUT TO
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT ON WHICH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. WHILE THIS OCCURS, THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S BUT INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SECOND, REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE AND
KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL PULL
COLD AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND BRING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES MIXING INTO THE RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH COLUMN TEMPERATURES
WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE OR LESS SNOW CHANCES. HIGH TERRAIN
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS EVENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND BACKSIDE SHOWERS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD, EXISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
OVERALL THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A PATTERN CHANGE
THAT'S LARGELY EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT AS MID TO LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL, RAIN
MAY SWITCH TO SNOW ON THE HIGH ELEVATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY IFR AT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN TAF SITES AND MVFR FOR LOZ AND SME. CIGS COULD
GENERALLY LOWER A BIT MORE INTO THE DAWN AS AN INVERSION
STRENGTHENS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH FOG A CONCERN AT RIDGETOP
SITES SUCH AS KJKL. GIVEN THE INVERSION, EXPECT ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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