156
FXUS63 KJKL 151020
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
520 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE
TRENDING TO AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A COOLER PATTERN IS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATER NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE LOWER PRESSURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS ON
IN THE EAST. IN ADDITION, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED
OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION. AS A
RESULT, WE ARE SEEING POCKETS OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME FOG FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THE
CLOUDS ARE ALSO KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE FAIRLY UNIFORM
THIS NIGHT - IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE FORMER AND MID
TO UPPER 40S THE LATTER. WINDS ALSO CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHWEST
AT AROUND 5 MPH BRINGING IN MORE COOL AIR.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE NOW IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A COMPACT CLOSED LOW 5H TROUGH MOVING
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING WHILE RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO
THE STATE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MEANS NORTHWEST
FLOW AT MID LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT ABOVE THE JKL CWA WITH ALL
IMPULSE WELL OFF TO THE EAST. 5H HEIGHTS WILL RISE INTO EVENING
BEFORE HOLDING STEADY FOR A TIME INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE MOVES TO THE DEEP SOUTH. HEIGHTS THEN RESUME
THEIR UPWARD CLIMB THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS MID LEVELS REMAIN
BENIGN. THE VERY SMALL SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS ENDORSED USING THE
NBM AS THE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE MAIN
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO SKY COVER TO HOLD OFF ON MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING INTO SATURDAY. DID ALSO CUT HIGHS A BIT FROM THE NBM
TODAY ON ACCOUNT OF THOSE LOW CLOUDS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES CLOUDY AND DAMP CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY, FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, AND LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN
THE EAST - OWING TO A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
TIME. LOOK FOR PATCHES OF DRIZZLE TO BE AROUND THIS MORNING WITH
BETTER DRYING AT THE LOW LEVELS TAKING PLACE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE
VALLEYS, BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT ANOTHER NIGHT OF UNIFORM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN AND
WOULD THEN LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND POINTS WEST. RETURNING SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY
BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
ADJUSTING THE SKY GRIDS HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY, INTO TONIGHT, AND
EVEN FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE NOT
CHANGED MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE NBM - ASIDE FROM SOME
EXTRA TERRAIN DISTINCTION FOR THE WESTERN CUMBERLAND VALLEY LOW
SPOTS LATE TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TAKING
PLACE. AS THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DUE TO THIS SURFACE HIGH BEING IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER-60S. HOWEVER, DETERMINISTIC
MODELS AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL BRING A PATTERN SHIFT TO EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE FIRST OF THESE SYSTEMS, IS FORECAST TO PIVOT OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SAG SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
FRONT WILL DIVE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER AND STALL OUT TO
BECOMING A STATIONARY FRONT ON WHICH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND RIDE ALONG. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EJECT OUT OF
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. WHILE THIS OCCURS, THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY, HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-60S TO LOWER-70S BUT INCREASING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SECOND, REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST ONE AND
KEEP SHOWER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL PULL
COLD AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND BRING BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE PICTURE FOR THURSDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES MIXING INTO THE RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH COLUMN TEMPERATURES
WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE OR LESS SNOW CHANCES. HIGH TERRAIN
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN BORDER WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS WITH THIS EVENT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EJECTS INTO NEW ENGLAND AND BACKSIDE SHOWERS,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMMA HEAD, EXISTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
OVERALL THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A PATTERN CHANGE
THAT'S LARGELY EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BEFORE THIS SYSTEM
ARRIVES, HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT AS MID TO LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES FALL, RAIN
MAY SWITCH TO SNOW ON THE HIGH ELEVATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST FRI NOV 15 2024
CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ARE GENERALLY IFR AT THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN TAF SITES AND MVFR FOR LOZ AND SME. CIGS COULD
GENERALLY LOWER A BIT MORE INTO THE DAWN AS AN INVERSION
STRENGTHENS IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH FOG A CONCERN AT RIDGETOP
SITES SUCH AS KJKL. GIVEN THE INVERSION, EXPECT ONLY LIMITED
IMPROVEMENTS TO THE CIGS INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING WILL BE LIMITED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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