004
FNUS73 KJKL 201225
FWSJKL
SPOT FORECAST FOR BRIER HOLLOW 3...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
725 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 EST ON DECEMBER 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE FIRE AREA BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200, USHERING IN COLDER AIR WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. RAIN SHOWERS OR A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KY LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT, BEFORE
TAPERING TO FLURRIES ON SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO END THE WEEKEND, BEFORE A SERIES OF SYSTEMS BRINGS RAIN CHANCES FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RAIN SHOWERS, THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
1300.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 39.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 79 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............AROUND 35 DECREASING TO AROUND 26.
MIN APPARENT TEMP...AROUND 24.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST TO WEST 5 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......SOUTHWEST TO WEST 6 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 2800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH, BECOMING WEST 18
TO 22 MPH AFTER 1100.
VENT RATE...........POOR (9900 KNOT-FT) EARLY, INCREASING TO POOR
(38200 KNOT-FT) TO FAIR ( 49700 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............3 TO 5.
ADI.................14 EARLY, MAX 47.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........68 79 91 95 92 94 93 89 90 94
WEATHER COV..... SCT SCT NUM SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RS SW SW SW SW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 30 50 60 50 40 50 40 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............35 37 38 38 36 36 34 33 32 31
DEWPOINT........34 35 36 37 36 35 31 29 27 26
RH..............96 92 92 96 100 96 89 85 81 81
APARNT TMP (F)..31 33 34 34 30 30 27 26 25 24
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 13 15 16 17 18 18 18 17
RIDGE WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW W W W W W W
RIDGE WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.7 2.8 2.5 2.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW W W W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 14 16 20 20 21 21 21 21
LVORI...........5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3
ADI.............14 17 21 28 35 40 47 47 45 41
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 13 16 23 29 37 49 50 45 38
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR FR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 29.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............AROUND 27 INCREASING TO AROUND 30.
MIN APPARENT TEMP...AROUND 22.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST TO NORTH 5 TO 8 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......WEST TO NORTH 7 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......DECREASING TO 1000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST TO NORTH 12 TO 18 MPH.
VENT RATE...........MARGINAL (31100 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING
DECREASING TO (9800 KNOT-FT) TO POOR (21500
KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............4 EARLY, 6 TO 8 LATE.
ADI.................21 EARLY, THEN 8 TO 10 LATE.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........90 95 94 90 92 91
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD NUMRUS SCTTRD NUMRUS NUMRUS SCTTRD
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).50 60 50 60 60 50
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............30 30 31 32 31 31
DEWPOINT........26 29 29 31 31 29
RH..............85 96 92 96 100 92
APARNT TMP (F)..22 23 25 26 25 25
20 FT WIND......W 8 W 7 W 6 NW 6 NW 6 N 6
20 FT WIND GUST.17 16 15 14 14 14
RIDGETOP WIND...W 9 W 8 W 7 NW 7 NW 7 N 7
MIX HGT (FT)....1900 1200 1000 1200 1300 1800
TRANSPORT WIND..W 18 W 14 NW 12 N 15 N 15 N 14
LVORI...........4 6 6 6 8 6
ADI.............21 9 8 10 10 9
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2
VRATE KT-FT/1K..31 14 10 16 17 22
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
SATURDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (70-80 PERCENT). ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING,
THEN SCATTERED FLURRIES.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 35.
MIN HUMIDITY........AROUND 52 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............AROUND 26 DECREASING TO AROUND 20 IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIN APPARENT TEMP...AROUND 24.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH 4 TO 6 MPH.
RIDGETOP WIND.......NORTH 5 TO 7 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......MAX 3200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 9 TO 15 MPH.
VENT RATE...........POOR (17300 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO POOR (20200
KNOT-FT) TO POOR (32000 KNOT-FT).
LVORI...............2 TO 4.
ADI.................21 TO 28.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (EST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........91 89 85 64
WEATHER COV.....SCTTRD ISOLTD
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 10 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
TEMP............31 30 33 35
DEWPOINT........28 27 24 20
RH..............88 88 69 54
APARNT TMP (F)..25 24 28 31
20 FT WIND......N 6G15 N 6G13 N 6G12 N 5G10
RIDGETOP WIND...N 7 N 7 N 7 N 6
MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1700 2800 3100
TRANSPORT WIND..N 15 N 13 N 10 N 12
LVORI...........4 4 3 2
ADI.............24 23 24 28
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3
VRATE KT-FT/1K..19 19 26 31
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
FORECASTER...JP
REQUESTED BY...DAVE KANNAS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2428643.3/JKL
.DELDT 12/20/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL PAUL.LEMMON@USDA.GOV,DAVID.KANNAS@USDA.GOV
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