351
FXUS63 KJKL 140122
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
822 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TONIGHT, AND IN MANY PLACES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHTS - PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
RETURNING AGAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 821 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
TEMPERATURES WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. HOURLY FORECAST HAS BEEN BROUGHT BACK INTO LINE WITH
OBSERVATIONS. GOING FORECAST IS OTHERWISE IN GOOD SHAPE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AN ENLONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDED FROM THE
UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THE AXIS OF WHICH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF
CANADA ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO FOUR CORNERS REGION TO
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WAS DROPPING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. FURTHER WEST, AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE
SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR THE ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC BORDER WITH THE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
INTO THE NORTHEAST TO MID ATLANTIC STATES TO THE GULF COAST
STATES. MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE
MID MS VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SFC LOW/CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
WORKING ACROSS THE MT/DAKOTAS VICINITY. LOCALLY, CLOUD DEPTH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS NOT BEEN SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RADAR RETURNS OF ANY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
TONIGHT, THE ENLONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK EAST AND
NORTHEAST TO THE QUEBEC TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE OR
LESS BECOME AN OPEN EAVE. THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
ALSO MOVE TO A QUEBEC TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL PLAINS TO
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRACK SOUTH OF LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THEN MERGE COMPLETELY INTO THE TROUGH ON TUESDAY AS
IT ROTATES TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH A
500 MB TROUGH AXIS WORKING EAST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN
SOME HEIGHT RISES SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE COMMONWEALTH. MEANWHILE,
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/NE
VICINITY TO IL THROUGH AROUND DAWN ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KY TO VA ON TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT CROSSING EASTERN KY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING.
PRECEDING THE CLIPPER SYSTEM, THE SFC RIDGE SHOULD CROSS EASTERN
KY TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE NOSES QUICKLY INTO EASTERN KY FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN DRIER AND COLDER AIR.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AS IT
PASSES, BUT SHOULD BE MORE CONSEQUENTIAL THAN THE CLIPPER THE
CROSSED THE AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH
THE PASSING SFC CLIPPER AND FRONT SHOULD COMBINE WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-75, WITH FLURRIES LINGERING UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT NEAR THE VA BORDER BEFORE MOISTURE DECREASES. OMEGA
SHOULD MAXIMIZED GENERALLY BELOW THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
RATIOS TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 20:1 WHILE QPF SHOULD ONLY BE A
COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS ON AVERAGE. FOR MOST OF THE AREA A DUSTING
TO ABOUT A HALF OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN INCH OR MORE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE VICINITY OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF TONIGHT TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
FOR MORE NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS AND AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-64. APPARENT TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS MAY AT LEAST BRIEFLY FALL
TO NEAR ZERO FOR THESE MORE NORTHERN VALLEYS AND AREAS NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-64 TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SHOULD
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 IN THE
NORTH WITH SOME MID 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST NEARER TO THE TN BORDER.
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MTN PKWY AND KY 114 CORRIDORS WHERE VALLEYS AND
IN GENERAL MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-64 SHOULD CROP TO THE 0
TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE FOR MIN T WITH UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS FURTHER SOUTH. APPARENT TEMPERATURES SHOULD AGAIN NEAR ZERO
IN THESE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
UNFORTUNATELY THE COLD PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED - THOUGH
THERE ARE SOME WELCOMED WARM MOMENTS. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF
WEDNESDAY MORNING ON PERHAPS THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
GOOD NEWS IS THAT A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO SETTLE
ACROSS THE CWA, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, LEADING TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DURING THE DAY. THIS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN CHARGE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
MODELS DO SHOW A BREAKDOWN OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DUE TO A SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY, BUT
ALL MODELS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM) HAVE PRECIP REMAINING TO
THE NORTH OF THE CWA, KEEPING US DRY. THE NBM SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS
LEAD AS WELL, SO DID NOT DEVIATE AT THIS MOMENT, BUT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN CASE MODELS DECIDE TO BRING THE
PRECIP A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY. DESPITE A RESURGENCE OF
UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW ON THURSDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW
WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALLOWING FOR SOME WAA
(AIDED BY SUNSHINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA). THIS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S FOR HIGHS.
THIS SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WEEKEND, AS
HEIGHTS ALOFT ALSO BEGIN TO BECOME MORE ZONAL. HIGHS ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL PEAK IN THE 40S, A BIT WARMER THAN PAST DAYS, AND
ALSO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AT 0Z SATURDAY, THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT KENTUCKY WILL BE TAKING
SHAPE TO OUR WEST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE MOVING
INTO ONTARIO, WHILE ANOTHER SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BOTH OF THESE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD, CREATING A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL CONNECT THE TWO. AS IT MOVES EAST, IT WILL START
ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, CREATING A LINE OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, TAPERING OFF LATE IN THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS.
ONCE THE SYSTEM DOES DEPART, ANOTHER ONE WILL HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY RIGHT ON IT'S TAILS, SPURRED BY INCREASE SW FLOW AND
DECREASING HEIGHTS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN TAKES HOLD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
IN THIS SYSTEM BEING DAY 7, KEPT WITH NBM WHICH DOES MATCH UP WITH
THE MODELS FAIRLY WELL RIGHT NOW, SHOWING SCATTERED POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ALSO BY
MONDAY, COLDER AIR FROM THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COLD SNAP ACROSS THE
REGION. AS SUCH, ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
COULD TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW. HOWEVER, AGAIN, THIS IS DAY 7 AND
BEYOND, SO THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR CHANGING PATTERNS AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER. BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT THE OVERALL PATTERN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME.
LINGERING VFR CEILINGS ADJACENT TO THE VIRGINIA-KENTUCKY BORDER
SHOULD EXIT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EXPECT A FEW LOW CLOUDS
OR CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO
NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
BE WESTERLY TO VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 12Z BEFORE
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS AND TURNING NORTHWESTERLY ON
TUESDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEERTSON
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