273
FXUS63 KJKL 141442
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
942 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
RETURNING AGAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
HAVE UPDATED THE INCREASE IN SKY COVER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BASED
ON LATEST MODEL RUNS AND THE PROGRESS OF THE CLOUD DECK TO OUR
NORTH ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO BLENDED MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH JUST THE INCLUSION OF
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER KENTUCKY OUT
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. THE HIGH HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT
LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY VARY FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTHWEST,
AND A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS, TO AROUND 20 ON SOME OF
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH TO NEAR 15 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TIGHTENING UP AND WORKING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH ITS MID
LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING PAST JUST TO THE NORTH IN THE STILL NEARLY
ZONAL, FAST FLOW. THIS BRUSHES BY NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE JKL CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT 5H HEIGHT
FALLS. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS THIS WAVE WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING
WEAK ENERGY SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
DECENT IMPULSE WILL COME EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY - FASTER IN THE GFS SUITE THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THIS
WILL NEED WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KENTUCKY
WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK. THE SMALL, EXCEPT FOR THE VORT MAX OVER
ARKANSAS AT 00Z THURSDAY, MODEL SPREAD ALOFT MADE THE NBM A
REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS, THOUGH WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENT PER THE LATEST CAMS FOR POPS TODAY BUT AGAIN THESE
WERE MOSTLY HAND DRAWN FROM EXPERIENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES CHILLY WEATHER CONTINUING - STARTING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THIS MORNING AND
ONLY RISING TO NEAR FREEZING BY MID AFTERNOON NORTH AND THE MID
30S SOUTH. IN THIS SETTING, ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH THIS, AN AREA OF LIFT WILL
TAKE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE FRONT TO NEAR THE DGZ FOR A FEW
HOURS AS IT PASSES. ACCORDINGLY, WE EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH UP TO A HALF IN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH (UP TO AN INCH ON TOP
OF BLACK MOUNTAIN). THIS WILL BE A DRY SNOW AND EASY TO BLOW
AROUND SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY NONE. THE LAST OF THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLEARING MEANING SOME
WIND CHILLS WILL REACH BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT. THE
COLD CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE INEFFECTIVE IN
TAKING READINGS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING - EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH NEARER
TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT AGAIN CONSISTED PRIMARILY
OF TWEAKING THE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST CAMS
GUIDANCE BUT MOSTLY HAND ADJUSTED UPWARD ON ACCOUNT OF THE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES
WERE KEPT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE NBM PDF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT, HEIGHT FALLS AND AN ACCOMPANYING 90-100 KT
JET STREAK WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS SYSTEM, OPTED TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM AND LEAN
TOWARD A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE GFS AND NBM TO INSURE POP CHANCES (0-
20%) WERE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE FRONT WILL EXIT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
THROUGH OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING, TWO UPPER-LEVEL
WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NORTHERLY WAVE IS TRACKING
THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SOUTHERLY WAVE IS
EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE
LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NORTHERLY LOW WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. TOGETHER, THESE SYSTEMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
DAY FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
COMMONWEALTH WITH INCREASING POP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES
QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. SNOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF INTO MONDAY.
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE WINTER WEATHER THREATS.
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE WITH FLUCTUATIONS
IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL CLIMB FROM THE MID-30S ON
THURSDAY TO MID TO UPPER-40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING
BACK INTO THE 30S FOR SUNDAY AND 20S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW THIS TREND AS THE PERIOD STARTS IN THE
TEENS BUT WARMS INTO THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN FALLING BACK
INTO THE TEENS ANS SINGLE DIGITS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AT ISSUANCE TIME. EXPECT
JUST A FEW CLOUDS AROUND, BUT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND THE THREAT FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE
NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURN
BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AT 5 KTS
OR LESS THROUGH 15Z BEFORE INCREASING TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS -
THEN TURNING NORTHWESTERLY BY EVENING AND DIMINISHING.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page