523
FXUS63 KJKL 142045
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT,
RETURNING AGAIN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
HAVE UPDATED THE INCREASE IN SKY COVER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BASED
ON LATEST MODEL RUNS AND THE PROGRESS OF THE CLOUD DECK TO OUR
NORTH ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO BLENDED MORNING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE EXISTING FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH JUST THE INCLUSION OF
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER KENTUCKY OUT
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO DROP IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TODAY. THE HIGH HAS KEPT THE SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT
LEADING TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY VARY FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE IN THE NORTHWEST,
AND A FEW OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS, TO AROUND 20 ON SOME OF
THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE SINGLE
DIGITS NORTH TO NEAR 15 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEAST.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THEY ALL DEPICT A LARGE TROUGH
STRETCHING FROM EASTERN CANADA TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TIGHTENING UP AND WORKING EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CORE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WITH ITS MID
LEVEL ENERGY SLIDING PAST JUST TO THE NORTH IN THE STILL NEARLY
ZONAL, FAST FLOW. THIS BRUSHES BY NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE JKL CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT 5H HEIGHT
FALLS. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS THIS WAVE WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING
WEAK ENERGY SINKING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
DECENT IMPULSE WILL COME EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY - FASTER IN THE GFS SUITE THAN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THIS
WILL NEED WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KENTUCKY
WEATHER LATER IN THE WEEK. THE SMALL, EXCEPT FOR THE VORT MAX OVER
ARKANSAS AT 00Z THURSDAY, MODEL SPREAD ALOFT MADE THE NBM A
REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS, THOUGH WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENT PER THE LATEST CAMS FOR POPS TODAY BUT AGAIN THESE
WERE MOSTLY HAND DRAWN FROM EXPERIENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES CHILLY WEATHER CONTINUING - STARTING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS THIS MORNING AND
ONLY RISING TO NEAR FREEZING BY MID AFTERNOON NORTH AND THE MID
30S SOUTH. IN THIS SETTING, ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS
WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH THIS, AN AREA OF LIFT WILL
TAKE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF THE FRONT TO NEAR THE DGZ FOR A FEW
HOURS AS IT PASSES. ACCORDINGLY, WE EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH UP TO A HALF IN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES THROUGH (UP TO AN INCH ON TOP
OF BLACK MOUNTAIN). THIS WILL BE A DRY SNOW AND EASY TO BLOW
AROUND SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY NONE. THE LAST OF THE
SNOW AND CLOUDS MOVE OUT LATER TONIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WITH THE CLEARING MEANING SOME
WIND CHILLS WILL REACH BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT. THE
COLD CONTINUES ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE INEFFECTIVE IN
TAKING READINGS TO OR ABOVE FREEZING - EXCEPT IN THE SOUTH NEARER
TO THE TENNESSEE BORDER.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT AGAIN CONSISTED PRIMARILY
OF TWEAKING THE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST CAMS
GUIDANCE BUT MOSTLY HAND ADJUSTED UPWARD ON ACCOUNT OF THE
MOISTURE DEPTH AND LIFT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, TEMPERATURES
WERE KEPT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE NBM PDF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE GENERAL
TROUGHINESS IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY ON
THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NBM SOLUTIONS BOTH HAVE A SMALL CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE SYSTEM PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM
THIS SYSTEM. ONCE THE CLIPPER MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL MOVE
INTO BEHIND IT TO END THE WEEK. FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. IN FACT, WE COULD SEE HIGHS REACHING THE 40S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE RIDGE, AND WILL BRING CLOUD SKIES
AND WIDESPREAD RAIN TO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. THE RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN ALONG THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MIX SHOULD FINALLY CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW VERY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AS COLDER AIR
SPILLS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY PUSH OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS
WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE HIGH SINGLE
DIGITS ALONG I-64, AND THE LOWER TO MID-TEENS SOUTH OF THERE.
AFTER SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY, DAYTIME MAXES WILL
STEADILY DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGHS ON EACH OF THOSE
DAYS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY AND THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE LATEST NBM DATA SUGGESTS
THAT PERSISTENT MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WILL BRING PERIODS OF SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SHOULD THIS PART OF THE FORECAST
VERIFY, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW HEADING INTO
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, HOWEVER, DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY
WE WILL TAKE THIS ALL WITH A GRAIN OF SALT FOR NOW. WEATHER HAZARDS
IN THE EXTENDED WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES AND LOW WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
AND AN AREA OF LOWERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN INITIAL CEILING OF 3.5-7K
FT AGL SHOULD ARRIVE AND THEN DROP TO MVFR FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM MCKEE TO HARLAN. THE SNOW AND MOST OF THE CLOUDS
SHOULD DRY UP OVERNIGHT, WITH THE LAST OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
BREAKING UP IN SOUTHEAST KY BY AROUND DAWN. THAT WILL LEAVE VFR
CONDITIONS TO FINISH THE PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
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