230
FXUS63 KJKL 150859
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BELOW
NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL TO NEAR ZERO FOR A FEW LOCATIONS
TONIGHT-- PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE MOSTLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM THE INCLUSION OF THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS. THESE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS PASSED WITH LITTLE FANFARE AND EVEN LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FLURRY ACTIVITY THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. GIVEN
DEW POINTS FALLING TO NEAR 0F, FAIRLY CONTIGUOUS SNOW COVER, AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF MOST SHARPLY LATE
TONIGHT OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AN SPS HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -5F AND +5F
AT MANY LOCATIONS FROM ESTILL TO ELLIOTT COUNTIES AND NORTHWARD.
AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA OUTLINED BY THE SPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AT MID-EVENING.
AIR TEMPERATURES AT 735 PM EST RANGED FROM 19F AT THE
FLEMINGSBURG-MASON AIRPORT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY UP TO 38F AT THE
MIDDLESBORO-BELL COUNTY AND HARLAN AIRPORTS SOUTHEAST OF
BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER WITH THE BOUNDARY BUT THERE IS
LITTLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES
AND POSSIBLY AN UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER (EAST OF I-75). UPSTREAM AIR
MASS IS BITTERLY COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO TUMBLE RIGHT
THROUGH THE 20S AND 10S SOUTH, AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
AROUND ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOCALES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND SHALLOW--
GENERALLY BELOW 8K FT. HOWEVER, THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER IS
EXTENDING TO TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -10C AT TIMES, ENABLING ICE
PRODUCTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE MOST FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 22Z AND 06Z.
HAVE USED A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP, WITH FLURRIES
BEING THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME FOR MOST PLACES. DECREASING CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FROPA (WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW OVER OPEN TERRAIN), THE WINDS WILL
SLACKEN DURING THE NIGHT. THAT SETS UP A QUESTION FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WOULD NORMALLY NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR DECOUPLING FROM THE FLOW. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS DYING
DOWN AND SNOW ON THE GROUND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THERE IS CONCERN
THAT SOME VALLEYS MAY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT, WHICH WOULD SEND LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO IN SNOW COVERED VALLEYS. ASIDE
FROM DECOUPLING, UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS COULD BE EXPECTED.
HAVE COMPROMISED AND WENT WITH THE COLDEST LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN
VALLEYS NEAR ZERO, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH BENEATH BENIGN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AMPLE SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY.
EVEN SO, TEMPERATURES IN THE COLD AIR MASS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING FOR ALL BUT A FEW PLACES NEAR THE TN BORDER.
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN TO OUR AREA IN
A VERY LARGE FLOW REGIME AROUND A DEEP LOW CROSSING HUDSON BAY.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE NIGHT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS,
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY FALL OF STEEPLY IN THE EVENING. WHERE
THEY SETTLE BEFORE BEGINNING TO REBOUND IN THE NIGHT WILL
DETERMINE OUR LOWS, AND ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
COMMONWEALTH. WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE NBM FAVORED A LITTLE BIT MORE OF
WETTER SOLUTION AND OPTED TO KEEP THAT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BEFORE POP COMES TO AN END BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
SAME TIME, TWO UPPER-LEVEL WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CONUS. THE
NORTHERLY WAVE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE SOUTHERLY WAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ONCE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL TAKE PLACE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE
NORTHERLY LOW WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE COLD FRONT. TOGETHER, THESE SYSTEMS
WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERLY SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH WITH INCREASING POP CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO ALL SNOW WILL OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY AS
FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO TAPER OFF INTO MONDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THE WINTER
WEATHER THREATS. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING, A SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TRACK
TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN LARGELY SOUTH OF THE CWA
BUT AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO EJECT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL CLIP THE
FORECAST AREA LEADING TO INCREASED SNOW CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
AN ACTIVE FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE WITH
FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO MID TO
UPPER-40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK INTO THE 30S
FOR SUNDAY AND 20S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND AS THE PERIOD STARTS IN THE MID-20S BUT WILL WARM
INTO THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS
ANS SINGLE DIGITS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTED OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THIS PART
OF THE STATE. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 10 KTS WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY DAWN AND CONTINUE AT THOSE
SPEEDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF
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