109
FXUS63 KJKL 152029
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
329 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
- ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BELOW
NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
ONCE AGAIN, ONLY NONSUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE TO BLEND
CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
ONLY NONSUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE TO BLEND CURRENT CONDITIONS
INTO THE FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH JUST THE INCLUSION OF
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR THE T/TD/SKY GRIDS AS WE ARE SEEING
A FEW TEMPS NEAR THE 0 DEGREE MARK. THESE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EST WED JAN 15 2025
09Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PAST EVENING'S CLIPPER SYSTEM HAS
MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS COLD AIR MASS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND NEAR 20 DEGREES SOUTH. MEANWHILE, AMID
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE DRY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR MOST PLACES. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE ARRIVED IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY HAVE RESOLVED THEIR
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. THEY ALL DEPICT BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT WITH ONE CORE OF ENERGY
SHIFTING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER
COMING EAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS THE
LOW 5H HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY ALONG WITH PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW. AS THE WESTERN TROUGH COMES EAST TODAY IT WILL DIVE
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH PASSING MOSTLY HARMLESSLY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT BUT ALSO HELPING TO KEEP NORTHWEST, MID-LEVEL FLOW GOING
OVER THE JKL CWA. IN THIS REGIME, THE NEXT WAVE OF ENERGY SWINGS
INTO, AND THROUGH, THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER THURSDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A REBOUND IN HEIGHTS TAKE PLACE INTO
THAT EVENING AS THE ENERGY WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TO THE EAST.
THE VERY SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT MADE THE NBM A GOOD STARTING
POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS, THOUGH WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT PER THE
LATEST CAMS FOR POPS ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH HEDGING TOWARD THE
COLDER VALUES FROM THE NBM PDF FOR TEMPERATURES.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES A VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY -
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR - WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE NOT ABLE TO PULL TEMPERATURES UP TO FREEZING MOST
PLACES - AWAY FROM THE TENNESSEE BORDER BY MID AFTERNOON. AFTER A
MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING, MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND THIS SHOULD MITIGATE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES - GENERALLY IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS NORTH OF I-64.
FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH TOWARDS DAWN WITH EVEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON THURSDAY ON ACCOUNT OF THE CLIPPER AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. ONLY THE BAREST OF ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
CLIPPER, THOUGH, AT THIS POINT. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELCOMED FOR THURSDAY BUT STILL DEFINITELY HOLDING ON THE COLD
SIDE OF NORMAL.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT AGAIN CONSISTED PRIMARILY
OF TWEAKING THE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST CAMS
GUIDANCE FOR THAT THURSDAY MORNING CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES WERE
KEPT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE NBM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE
RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WITH THE
SURFACE REFLECTION A BIT STRONGER THAN THE UPPER VERSION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING, AS A LARGE AND WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
OUR WAY FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY, WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY
MID TO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SHOULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO
BOTH OUT NORTH AND SOUTH. IN OTHER WORDS, BOTH A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER
HEADING INTO AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
COMBINE SOME OF THEIR ENERGY, ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
WELL INTO THE 40S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO OUR
EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING
TO SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THE LATEST MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE
AREA TO FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER AND IN AND AREA FROM INEZ TO SALYERSVILLE TO HYDEN TO EVARTS
TO WHITESBURG TO PHELPS AND BACK UP TO INEZ FROM THERE. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT ALONG THE I-64 AND I-75 CORRIDORS, SHOULD
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE PULL THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON SO FAR INTO THE CONUS AS IT WILL HAVE ORIGINATED IN THE
ARCTIC. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MAKE
IT OUT OF THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. WE COULD ALSO SEE LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS COLD FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PREDICTING THE ARCTIC
OUTBREAK NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES.
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SNOW TOTALS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
FROM THE COLD AS FAR AS WEATHER HAZARDS GO IN THE EXTENDED. USED A
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NBM, GFS, AND ECMWF MODELS TO
FORMULATE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
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