588  
FXUS63 KJKL 160154  
AFDJKL  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY  
854 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
 
- ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BELOW  
NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. APPARENT  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE  
AREA ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
- LIGHT RAIN (RATHER THAN SNOW!) IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY  
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.  
 
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 853 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE 10S NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH  
THIS EVENING. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS ABOUT TO SLOW ACROSS  
MOST OF THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUD COVER  
MOVES FROM INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER  
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ACTUALLY BEGIN RISING  
IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
THE BROAD FLOW AROUND A LARGE, ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER  
HUDSON BAY WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT AND  
EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING. THE DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE SYSTEM WILL  
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE ADVECTION REGIMES WILL STILL HAVE AN  
EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ITS  
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS,  
AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES, BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER  
SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. THE LATER COLD AIR  
ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH SOME  
LIMITED HEATING, WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN  
NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TOP OF THE LAYER MIGHT BE MARGINALLY  
COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,  
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.  
WITH THIS, ANY FLURRIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEPART TO THE EAST.  
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING  
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION, WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY BEING HARD TO  
SHAKE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.  
 
THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD  
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MIDWAY THROUGH THE NIGHT,  
WITH READINGS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE  
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL  
START TO REBOUND.  
   
LONG TERM  
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 329 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN  
THIRD OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE  
RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, WITH THE  
SURFACE REFLECTION A BIT STRONGER THAN THE UPPER VERSION. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY BUT COLD WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY ON  
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT BY EARLY FRIDAY  
EVENING, AS A LARGE AND WELL DEVELOPED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES  
OUR WAY FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY  
FRIDAY, WITH RAIN EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BY  
MID TO LATE FRIDAY EVENING. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN  
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT, AND SHOULD BECOME  
WIDESPREAD BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO  
BOTH OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. IN OTHER WORDS, BOTH A NORTHERN STREAM  
SYSTEM AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTING OUR WEATHER  
HEADING INTO AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL  
COMBINE SOME OF THEIR ENERGY, ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND  
RAIN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GOOD  
NEWS IS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP AHEAD OF THE  
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM  
WELL INTO THE 40S BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND  
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO OUR  
EAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. THIS CHANGE IN  
TEMPERATURES WILL IN TURN LEAD TO RAIN MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING  
TO SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THE  
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THE LATEST MODEL DATA  
SUGGESTS THAT WE COULD STILL SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE  
AREA TO FINISH OUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH 1 TO 2  
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA  
BORDER AND IN AND AREA FROM INEZ TO SALYERSVILLE TO HYDEN TO EVARTS  
TO WHITESBURG TO PHELPS AND BACK UP TO INEZ FROM THERE. THE REST OF  
THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT ALONG THE I-64 AND I-75 CORRIDORS, SHOULD  
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY AND  
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND FINALLY EXIT THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  
 
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF  
THE NEW WORK WEEK, AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN  
FROM THE NORTH TO BEGIN THE WEEK. THIS RIDGE PULL THE COLDEST AIR OF  
THE SEASON SO FAR INTO THE CONUS AS IT WILL HAVE ORIGINATED IN THE  
ARCTIC. DAYTIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY NOT MAKE  
IT OUT OF THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. WE COULD ALSO SEE LOWS IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES  
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS COLD FOR  
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR  
MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE PREDICTING THE ARCTIC  
OUTBREAK NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES.  
WE WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SNOW TOTALS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS  
FROM THE COLD AS FAR AS WEATHER HAZARDS GO IN THE EXTENDED. USED A  
BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NBM, GFS, AND ECMWF MODELS TO  
FORMULATE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 648 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WILL CONTINUE INTO  
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE  
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOWER TO HIGH-END MVFR/LOW-  
END VFR WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE  
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, MAINLY WELL EAST OF I-75. WEST SOUTHWEST  
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MIDDAY THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND  
20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...GEERTSON  
SHORT TERM...HAL  
LONG TERM...AR  
AVIATION...GEERTSON  
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