763
FXUS63 KJKL 160722
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
222 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ASIDE FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BELOW
NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT RAIN (RATHER THAN SNOW!) IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AND LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1059 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER IS SLOWING THE FALL IN TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. SOME THINNING IN THE
CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE WEE MORNING HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE
THICKENING AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT. IF THIS WINDOW OF CLEARING
MATERIALIZES, THAT COULD BE WHEN MANY LOCATIONS ESTABLISH THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF INTO THE 10S NORTH TO MID 20S SOUTH
THIS EVENING. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS ABOUT TO SLOW ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA AS MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUD COVER
MOVES FROM INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ACTUALLY BEGIN RISING
IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
THE BROAD FLOW AROUND A LARGE, ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION FOR OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, BUT THE ADVECTION REGIMES WILL STILL HAVE AN
EFFECT ON OUR WEATHER. THE INITIAL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ITS
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS,
AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES, BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
SHOT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. THE LATER COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ALONG WITH SOME
LIMITED HEATING, WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS BECOMING CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TOP OF THE LAYER MIGHT BE MARGINALLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THIS, ANY FLURRIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEPART TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION, WITH CLOUDS POSSIBLY BEING HARD TO
SHAKE, ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT SHOULD
RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING MIDWAY THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WITH READINGS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO REBOUND.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS MOVING EAST TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH FAIRLY
DECENT WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN QUITE MILD
WITH FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS SOME DOWNSLOPING RESULTING IN
LESSER RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE LEE OF PINE MOUNTAIN.
THE POLAR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY, WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS A
FEW HOURS LATER. THE STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG CURVATURE
VORTICITY WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY HELP TO EFFICIENTLY SQUEEZE OUT
ANY MOISTURE RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH ALONG OR JUST UPSTREAM OF PINE
MOUNTAIN IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH ARCTIC COLD
ACROSS THE REGION THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE ONE
OF THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAKS, RECORDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE THREATENED DUE TO THIS EVENT COINCIDING WITH THE INFAMOUS 1985
(AND TO A LESSER DEGREE 1994) ARCTIC OUTBREAK THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR MANY OF THE ALL-TIME LOWEST TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENTS TO THREATENING THESE RECORDS
APPEAR TO BE CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME UNDER PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION, AS
WELL AS THE LACK OF A FRESH DEEP SNOW COVER SUPPORTIVE OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE TEENS FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL AS LOWS APPROACHING
ZERO DEGREES SUGGESTS AN IMPACTFUL ARCTIC COLD EVENT FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE ARCTIC COLD BEGINS TO SLOWLY RELENT WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE, WITH TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA, STRONGEST ON THE WARMER GFS AND FLATTER ON
THE COLDER ECMWF DURING THIS TIME, SUGGESTING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN NBM HIGHS WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK RISING INTO THE 20S, WHILE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS AND FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING DURING ANY
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. A PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS CREATING LOWERED CIGS
FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. A PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS
RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALSO WITH THE CLIPPER, LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOW;
THEREFORE, WAS OMITTED FROM THE KJKL, KSYM AND KSJS TAFS. LASTLY,
LOWERED CIGS DUE TO THE CLIPPER ARE EXPECTED AND TERMINALS WILL
FALL FROM LARGELY VFR TO CATEGORICAL MVFR/IFR AFTER 00Z/FRIDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST
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