927
FXUS63 KJKL 161523
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1023 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1022 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
A FEW FLURRIES OCCURRED THIS MORNING WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION, BUT
THEY ARE TAPERING OFF AND CLEARING IS MOVING IN AT LEAST FOR A
TIME. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. MORE CLOUDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE PROSPECT FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS SLIM, AND THE MENTION OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP IN THE FORECAST IS NOW LIMITED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE CONUS IS RATHER QUIET. A SURFACE
LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A TRAILING WARM FRONT
THAT'S DIVING STRAIGHT SOUTH, PARALLELING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND THE CWA IS LARGELY
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES. LOCALLY, IN THE
COMMONWEALTH, TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING TO CLIMB AS SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE ADVECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. WESTERN
KENTUCKY IS IN THE MID-20S TO LOW-30S. HERE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE STATE, WE'RE STILL SEEING LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO LOW-20S. AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES, THOSE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB ON
OUR SIDE OF THE STATE.
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 90-
100 KNOT JETSTREAK WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COMMONWEALTH. LOW-
LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT THOSE WARMER
TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO DUE TO A LACK OF AN INVERSION, THOSE WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO WITH THE TROUGH, INCREASED CHANCES OF FLURRIES
AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES (10-20%) OF SEEING SOME SNOW. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PIKE, LETCHER
AND HARLAN COUNTIES. ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS LATE TONIGHT, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER
MODERATE BY ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER-20S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ADVECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-40S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE KY-
80 CORRIDOR, MID-40S FOR AREAS BETWEEN THE KY-80 AND I-64 CORRIDORS
AND UPPER-30S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR. WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REIGN SUPREME OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY, TO THE WEST, A
SURFACE LOW WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. POP
ISN'T EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT THE WAA EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
THE PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY EVENING WITH A DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS MOVING EAST TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE MOISTURE INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH FAIRLY
DECENT WARM ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN QUITE MILD
WITH FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE
ROUGHLY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR, WHILE THE MORE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS SOME DOWNSLOPING RESULTING IN
LESSER RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY OVER SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY IN THE LEE OF PINE MOUNTAIN.
THE POLAR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY, WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT PASSAGE IMMEDIATELY ON ITS HEELS A
FEW HOURS LATER. THE STEADY COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG CURVATURE
VORTICITY WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY HELP TO EFFICIENTLY SQUEEZE OUT
ANY MOISTURE RESULTING IN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO APPROACH OR EXCEED 1 INCH ALONG OR JUST UPSTREAM OF PINE
MOUNTAIN IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY.
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH ARCTIC COLD
ACROSS THE REGION THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE ONE
OF THE MORE IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAKS, RECORDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO
BE THREATENED DUE TO THIS EVENT COINCIDING WITH THE INFAMOUS 1985
(AND TO A LESSER DEGREE 1994) ARCTIC OUTBREAK THAT IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR MANY OF THE ALL-TIME LOWEST TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENTS TO THREATENING THESE RECORDS
APPEAR TO BE CLOUD COVER AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES LINGERING
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS TIME UNDER PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION, AS
WELL AS THE LACK OF A FRESH DEEP SNOW COVER SUPPORTIVE OF OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING. NEVERTHELESS, FORECAST HIGHS ONLY REACHING
THE TEENS FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL AS LOWS APPROACHING
ZERO DEGREES SUGGESTS AN IMPACTFUL ARCTIC COLD EVENT FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY.
THE ARCTIC COLD BEGINS TO SLOWLY RELENT WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE, WITH TRANSITORY UPPER RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE AREA, STRONGEST ON THE WARMER GFS AND FLATTER ON
THE COLDER ECMWF DURING THIS TIME, SUGGESTING HIGHER UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS POINT IN TIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN NBM HIGHS WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK RISING INTO THE 20S, WHILE LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO ONLY FALL INTO THE TEENS. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
CLOUDS AND FLURRY OR LIGHT SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING DURING ANY
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DURING THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE CREATING LOWERED CIGS BUT NOTHING
OF CONSEQUENCE. A PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SKIRT THE AREA
TODAY. AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 00Z AND SHIFTING TO
THE WEST- NORTHWEST. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ALSO WITH THE
CLIPPER, SNOW FLURRIES MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE
IS LOW; THEREFORE, WAS OMITTED FROM THE KJKL, KSYM AND KSJS TAFS.
LASTLY, LOWERED CIGS DUE TO THE CLIPPER ARE EXPECTED AND TERMINALS
WILL FALL FROM LARGELY VFR TO CATEGORICAL MVFR/IFR AFTER
00Z/FRIDAY. TERMINAL KSME IS FORECAST TO BE THE ONLY TERMINAL INTO
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 06Z/FRIDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL/VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST
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