884
FXUS63 KJKL 162146
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
446 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT
BELOW NORMAL READINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A BROAD, ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL BRINGING UPSLOPE COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE LOCAL
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH, THE EVENTUAL SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP LOWS TEMPERED SO AS NOT TO DROP
OFF AS COLD AS THEY OTHERWISE MIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD
DAWN. AS THIS HAPPENS, OUR COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL EASE AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WITH THIS, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST, AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS BROAD RIDGING ALOFT ALSO PASSES
OVER. TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORMED IN THE SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOWCOVER. SUSPECT WE WILL
SEE A SIMILAR OUTCOME ON FRIDAY.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF INCLEMENT WEATHER WILL MOVE IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO WILL OPEN AND GET
PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH DEEPENING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH ANOTHER INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A MODEST SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. IT WILL HELP TO SEND GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD (ATOP OUR COOLER AIR) AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER
TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND THEN
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT. WON'T RULE OUT SOME SNOW
MIXING IN AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER, BUT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A COLD RAIN.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
EXPECTED OUTBREAK OF BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR DURING THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. INITIALLY, WE WILL START OFF VERY WARM, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING STORM SYSTEM KEEPS GULF OF MEXICO
AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CHANGE QUICKLY,
HOWEVER, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS A FRIGID RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES RELENTLESSLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT, MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY THIS NEW AIR MASS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND THE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES IT WILL BRING. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND SEVEN
BELOW ZERO ARE SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS THE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER BIT OF GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE THE TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 40S TO END THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALSO FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ANY
REMAINING SNOW WE HAVE SHOULD BE COMPLETELY MELTED.
HOWEVER, AS THE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL MIX
WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, WITH NOTHING BUT SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODEL RUNS DURING THE PAST FEW DAY SHIFTS HAVE YIELDED
PERSISTENT SLIGHT INCREASES IN QPF AND SNOW FALL ACROSS OUR AREA.
TODAY THOUGH, THE GFS RUN DRAMATICALLY INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, MUCH MORE SO THAN BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
WERE SHOWING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO TEMPER DOWN BOTH QPF AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NOW, UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. AS IT STANDS, IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER AND JUST EAST FROM A LINE EXTENDING FROM INEZ TO
HAZARD TO EVARTS. WITH PERSISTENT MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SET UP BEHIND THE DEPARTED STORM SYSTEM, WE COULD HAVE ENOUGH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LINGERING
CLOUD COVER WE HAVE.
AFTER SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY, A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN
THE 20S, AS THE ARCTIC AIR FIRST BEGINS TO MOVE IN. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON THOSE TWO DAYS MAY ONLY RISE
INTO THE TEENS. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
PERHAPS FALLING TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. WEATHER HAZARDS TO LOOK
FOR WILL BE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS, AND ANY ISSUES THAT ARISE FROM THE SNOW WE
SEE OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE ACTUALLY
RECEIVE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD. AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WAS BEGINNING TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO KY FROM IN AND OH. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTH
THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK UP AND
RETREAT TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY MORNING, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE OFF
TONIGHT.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL
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