887
FXUS63 KJKL 170825
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL SEE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEEP UPPER LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES TODAY, WITH AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK OVER
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BREAKING UP AND
MOVING OUT TO THE NORTH BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SEVERAL-HOUR
PERIOD OF CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MID-
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN BEGINS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 75
AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA RAPIDLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL AREA OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY TOWARD DAWN, WITH
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA, A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO FALL STEADILY.
WITH ACTUAL HIGHS YESTERDAY WELL ABOVE THE THE NBM FORECAST BY A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES, AND WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON DURING DIURNAL PEAK HEATING, HIGHS WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST, WITH MID-40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER-50S SOUTH. THIS TREND
WAS CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST USING THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE TO BETTER REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF MOS FORECASTS.
HOWEVER, THIS TREND WAS NOT EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST THU JAN 16 2025
THE BIG STORY FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
EXPECTED OUTBREAK OF BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIR DURING THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. INITIALLY, WE WILL START OFF VERY WARM, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING STORM SYSTEM KEEPS GULF OF MEXICO
AIR FLOWING INTO THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO WILL CHANGE QUICKLY,
HOWEVER, SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS A FRIGID RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES RELENTLESSLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT, MOST OF THE CONUS WILL BE
OVERTAKEN BY THIS NEW AIR MASS. THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE ARCTIC OUTBREAK AND THE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES IT WILL BRING. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES OF AROUND SEVEN
BELOW ZERO ARE SHOWING UP IN THE LATEST GFS SOUNDINGS THE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER BIT OF GOOD NEWS IS THAT WHILE THE TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 40S TO END THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN ALSO FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, ANY
REMAINING SNOW WE HAVE SHOULD BE COMPLETELY MELTED.
HOWEVER, AS THE TEMPERATURES PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT, RAIN WILL MIX
WITH AND EVENTUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, WITH NOTHING BUT SNOW
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. THE MODEL RUNS DURING THE PAST FEW DAY SHIFTS HAVE YIELDED
PERSISTENT SLIGHT INCREASES IN QPF AND SNOW FALL ACROSS OUR AREA.
TODAY THOUGH, THE GFS RUN DRAMATICALLY INCREASED SNOWFALL TOTALS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, MUCH MORE SO THAN BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF
WERE SHOWING. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO TEMPER DOWN BOTH QPF AND
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NOW, UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. AS IT STANDS, IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER AND JUST EAST FROM A LINE EXTENDING FROM INEZ TO
HAZARD TO EVARTS. WITH PERSISTENT MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED
TO SET UP BEHIND THE DEPARTED STORM SYSTEM, WE COULD HAVE ENOUGH
OROGRAPHIC LIFT PRESENT TO ALLOW SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE AREA AT TIMES DURING THE WEEK, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LINGERING
CLOUD COVER WE HAVE.
AFTER SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY, A DRAMATIC DECREASE IN
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN
THE 20S, AS THE ARCTIC AIR FIRST BEGINS TO MOVE IN. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON THOSE TWO DAYS MAY ONLY RISE
INTO THE TEENS. SINGLE DIGIT LOWS WILL BE HIGHLY LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64
PERHAPS FALLING TO ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW. WEATHER HAZARDS TO LOOK
FOR WILL BE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS, AND ANY ISSUES THAT ARISE FROM THE SNOW WE
SEE OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH SNOW WE ACTUALLY
RECEIVE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK WITH HEIGHTS OF 030 TO 035 RESIDES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKING SLOW INROADS
SOUTH AS OF 0515Z, WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MORE SOUTH IT WILL MAKE IT BEFORE THESE CLOUDS BREAK UP AND
RETREAT NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING, LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 20Z-21Z AND GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OR WESTERLY
TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY AT 3 TO 7 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ON FRIDAY. LLWS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AFTER 18/00Z AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AFTER DARK.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
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