356
FXUS63 KJKL 171421
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
921 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
MORNING OBSERVATIONS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. THIS
INCLUDES REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL SEE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEEP UPPER LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES TODAY, WITH AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK OVER
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BREAKING UP AND
MOVING OUT TO THE NORTH BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SEVERAL-HOUR
PERIOD OF CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MID-
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN BEGINS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 75
AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA RAPIDLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL AREA OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY TOWARD DAWN, WITH
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA, A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO FALL STEADILY.
WITH ACTUAL HIGHS YESTERDAY WELL ABOVE THE THE NBM FORECAST BY A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES, AND WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON DURING DIURNAL PEAK HEATING, HIGHS WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST, WITH MID-40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER-50S SOUTH. THIS TREND
WAS CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST USING THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE TO BETTER REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF MOS FORECASTS.
HOWEVER, THIS TREND WAS NOT EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
WHEN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT, AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SAID
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL YIELD A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH MANY LOCATIONS OBSERVING THEIR DAILY MAXTS
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S EARLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP DOWN
TO BELOW FREEZING AREA-WIDE BY 08Z ON SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY
AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S AMIDST PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE TWO PRIMARY
POINTS OF INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST: 1) ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND 2) A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
HAZARDOUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE COLUMN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, ONGOING RAIN WILL TRANSITION OVER TO A WET SNOW. THIS
TRANSITION UNFOLDS FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE BOUNDARY
GETS FURTHER AWAY AND A COLDER/DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN. HOWEVER,
SNOW CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL INGREDIENTS COME INTO PLACE ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIG INTO THE GREATER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY AND POSITION EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A REGIME OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BACK
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AT THE SAME TIME, WHICH WILL SET UP OROGRAPHIC
LIFTING ENHANCEMENTS IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS WIND SHIFT MAY
ALSO PRODUCE A FETCH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN, AND THAT WOULD ENHANCE
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WHILE A SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL
PROFILE SITS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. FURTHERMORE, SOME FORECAST
GUIDANCE RESOLVES A SECONDARY AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SE
ON SUNDAY. IF THIS CAME TO FRUITION, SUNDAY'S SNOW CHANCES AND
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED BEYOND WHAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE GRIDS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF MODEL CONSENSUS
SURROUNDING THIS FEATURES PRECLUDES US FROM DOING SO AT THIS MOMENT
IN TIME. THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST PACKAGE CALLS FOR GENERALLY LIGHT
STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1 TO 3 INCHES) BETWEEN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, WHEN SNOW WILL TAPER OFF IN THE FORM OF
FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST. THE DRY, FLUFFY NATURE OF SUNDAY'S SNOW
WILL LIKELY LIMIT ACCUMULATION-RELATED SOCIETAL IMPACTS, BUT THE
ANTECEDENT WETNESS OF THE ROADS AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET ON SATURDAY
NIGHT MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BLACK ICE AND SLICK SPOTS.
THESE TEMPERATURE-RELATED TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL SERVE AS A HARBINGER
FOR THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SUNDAY'S DROPPING TEMPERATURES MARK THE BEGINNING OF A 4-DAY-LONG
STRETCH OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED IN A COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME ON
MONDAY, WITH A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH NUDGING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE ADVECTION OF A TRUE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS
AROUND THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS HIGH WILL RELEGATE MONDAY'S HIGHS TO
THE TEENS, DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES. ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
COMBINE WITH BLUSTERY WINDS TO YIELD BRUTALLY COLD WIND CHILL
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE DAY ON MONDAY. FORECAST MAX APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON RANGE BETWEEN 8 IN FLEMING COUNTY
TO ONLY 15 IN PULASKI AND WAYNE COUNTIES. THIS BITTERLY COLD
SENSIBLE WEATHER FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH SUBZERO
WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAY ADVECT
CLOUDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SPARE EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUB ZERO TEMPERATURES ON THE
THERMOMETER. THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR SE, BUT IT WOULD STILL CAUSE AN UPTICK IN
WINDS. THIS WOULD ONLY WORSEN THE WIND CHILLS, SO WE WILL MONITOR
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS
MUCH MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
NIGHT SO FAR THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY WILL APPROACH 0 DEGREES, WITH SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THANKFULLY,
THE PARENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST BY THURSDAY, AND THE
RETURN FLOW ON ITS BACKSIDE SHOULD YIELD A LATE WEEK WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN 025 AND 035 ARE CONTINUING TO
SCATTER AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LOWERING CIGS
TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS RAIN AND RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 20Z-21Z AND
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING
THE DAY TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. LLWS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AFTER 18/00Z AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND PEAKS NEAR 03Z
BEFORE WEAKENING THEREAFTER, LIKELY DIMINISHING BEFORE 09Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...CMC
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