401
FXUS63 KJKL 172040
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TO WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOW EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 921 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
MORNING OBSERVATIONS WERE BLENDED INTO THE FORECAST. THIS
INCLUDES REDUCED CLOUD COVER TO RESULT IN SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL SEE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
A DEEP UPPER LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES TODAY, WITH AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK OVER
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BREAKING UP AND
MOVING OUT TO THE NORTH BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SEVERAL-HOUR
PERIOD OF CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE MID-
AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
MODELS SUGGEST RAIN BEGINS TO APPROACH AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 75
AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH RAIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA RAPIDLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL AREA OF
RAIN LATE TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY TOWARD DAWN, WITH
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA, A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) WILL OCCUR ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO FALL STEADILY.
WITH ACTUAL HIGHS YESTERDAY WELL ABOVE THE THE NBM FORECAST BY A FEW
TO SEVERAL DEGREES, AND WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A PERIOD OF CLEAR
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON DURING DIURNAL PEAK HEATING, HIGHS WERE
ADJUSTED UPWARDS A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE NBM DETERMINISTIC
FORECAST, WITH MID-40S IN THE NORTH TO LOWER-50S SOUTH. THIS TREND
WAS CONTINUED INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE FORECAST USING THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE TO BETTER REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF MOS FORECASTS.
HOWEVER, THIS TREND WAS NOT EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE
ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
THE BIG STORIES IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND, AND BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING AN ARCTIC FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
STORM SYSTEM BECOMING MORE DEVELOPED AND MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO STILL HAVE
SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. ON A LARGER SCALE, THE LATEST MODEL DATA(GFS ENSEMBLE, GFS,
NAM12, AND ECMWF) STILL AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR AN INVASION OF BITTERLY COLD AIR
INTO MOST OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE
CONUS THE FIRST OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, AND WILL BE CENTERED ROUGHLY
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING A SURGE OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST DAYS WILL BE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, DURING WHICH HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
AND LOW TO MID 20S RESPECTIVELY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 MAY
EVEN FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE LATEST
MODEL DATA HAS PRODUCED HIGHER QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY, PARTICULARLY THE GFS AND WPC GUIDANCE. THAT BEING
SAID, DECIDED TO FOLLOW SUIT IN THE FORECAST WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND, WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO RECOVER A BIT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES,
AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE THIS SYSTEM.
WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY, AND IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL
BEING FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TO THAT REGION. MOISTURE AND LIFT ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM COULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME RAIN AND SNOW BACK TO EASTERN KENTUCKY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT SYSTEM
THOUGH, SO WILL ONLY TAKE IT WITH A GRAIN OF SALT FOR NOW.
WEATHER HAZARDS TO WATCH FOR WILL BE ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS WEEKEND
AND ANY IMPACTS IT MAY HAVE, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO TRAVEL. THE
SECOND HAZARD WE WILL BE MONITORING WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPECTING THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND NIGHTS NEXT
WEEK AND ANY IMPACTS THAT WILL HAVE. IF IT GETS AS COLD AS IT
APPEARS IT WILL, ANYONE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS NEXT MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL WANT TO DRESS WARMLY AND LIMIT THEIR TIME OUTSIDE.
ANYONE WHO IS OUT DRIVING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION IN CASE ROADS, BRIDGES, AND OVERPASSES BECOME
SLICK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST FRI JAN 17 2025
LOW CLOUDS WITH CIG HEIGHTS BETWEEN 025 AND 035 ARE CONTINUING TO
SCATTER AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LOWERING CIGS
TO MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS RAIN AND RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 20Z-21Z AND
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY DURING
THE DAY TODAY AT 3 TO 7 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. LLWS HAS BEEN INTRODUCED AFTER 18/00Z AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS OVER PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING AND PEAKS NEAR 03Z
BEFORE WEAKENING THEREAFTER, LIKELY DIMINISHING BEFORE 09Z.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CMC
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