736
FXUS63 KJKL 182207
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
507 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND RUNNING
INTO THE NIGHT.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LAST INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
- SNOW SQUALLS ARE A CONCERN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEAR OR BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WHILE THE SYSTEMS'S COLD/ARCTIC FRONT IS CROSSING FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND FOG ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY, MAINLY AFFECTING POINTS EAST OF JKL. WITH THE FRONT,
WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THIS WIND SHIFT IS USHERING MUCH
COLDER AIR WITH READINGS ALREADY DOWN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE JKL CWA WHILE MID 40S ARE NOTED IN THE FAR
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS, MEANWHILE, BASICALLY MIRROR THE
TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 30S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW AND MID
40S IN THE SOUTH.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THIS SHARP PATTERN CHANGE NOW UNDERWAY AND
CONTINUING BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY
ALL DEPICT DEEP TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL CANADA TEAMING UP WITH A
SHORTWAVE COMING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO INITIATE DEEP
TROUGHING CONDITIONS DESCENDING OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE
SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY SUNDAY MORNING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A STOUT 3H JET RUNNING BY TO THE SOUTH. THIS JET WILL PLACE
SOME FRONT LEFT STREAK DYNAMICS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY TO ENHANCE
LIFT POTENTIAL AS IT PASSES - PRIMARILY SUNDAY MORNING. 5H HEIGHT
FALLS MAXIMIZE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AS WELL. FAST
WEST TO NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
WITH SOME WEAKER TRAIL-BEHIND ENERGY PASSING, MOSTLY HARMLESS,
OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. THE CONCERN WILL THEN TURN TO THE
WELL OF DEEPER ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS POISED TO DROP INTO THE
AREA FOR MID WEEK. THE SURPRISINGLY SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT MADE
THE NBM A REASONABLE STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS, THOUGH
WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT PER THE LATEST CAMS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES THE START OF WINTER'S HARSH RETURN THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE PASSING ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS
COLDER AIR IN, COOLING THE COLUMN, AND SWITCHING LINGERING
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE SNOW COVERAGE AND INTENSITY UNTIL
LATER OVERNIGHT WHEN THE DYNAMICS ALOFT KICK IN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A CLASSIC BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER THE AREA. SNOW RATES
AND AMOUNTS WILL BE ENHANCED BY BANDING AND PERSISTENT
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE AREA - ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JKL OFFICE
FOR SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST, UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO ADD TO THE
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE BEST DYNAMICS AND
DEEPER MOISTURE COME TOGETHER MOST COMPLETELY SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE HIGHEST SNOW RATES EXPECTED FOR A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA
FOR A COUPLE TO SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ALOFT
MOVE EAST BY AFTERNOON, THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MORE CELLULAR
STRUCTURE TO ANY SNOW BANDS WILL FOSTER A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY EAST. THESE WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AND SURELY
IMPACT SNOW TOTALS ALONG WITH BRINGING WIND GUSTS AND A BLOWING
SNOW/LOSS OF VISIBILITY DYNAMIC TO THE SHOWERS. ANOTHER IMPORTANT
FACTOR IS THE ADDITION OF MOISTURE OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE
BETTER OMEGA PROGGED TO LIFT THE SNOW SHOWERS WELL INTO THE DGZ.
LOOK FOR ACTIVITY TO SETTLE DOWN FOLLOWING SUNSET ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE WSWS EXPIRE IN A LIKE MANNER.
THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WERE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING 4+ INCHES WITH A POTENTIAL NEED TO
EXTEND THOSE FURTHER WEST IF THE SYSTEM OVER-PRODUCES.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GIVEN THROUGH THE DAY AND ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL MEAN RISING SNOW RATIOS
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE INITIALLY WET SNOWFALL BECOMES MORE FLUFFY
IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BASICALLY FLAT-LINE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY KEEPING READINGS BELOW FREEZING LEADING INTO A VERY COLD
NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS CHILLS AS LOW AS 10 BELOW
POSSIBLE - PRIMARILY FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-64. THE LAST OF THE
SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF THAT NIGHT TO FLURRIES WITH ENOUGH OF A
NORTH BREEZE AROUND TO MAXIMIZE THE CHILL.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
TWEAKING THE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST CAMS
GUIDANCE BUT ALSO WITH HAND ADJUSTMENTS ON ACCOUNT OF THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON THE COOL SIDE OF
THE NBM PDF THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 507 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. THE MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON. SEASONABLY STRONG TROUGHING WILL
START OFF ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, STEMMED
FROM A CLOSED LOW, WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC
ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY GYRE OFF TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
PARADING SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH,
HELPING TO REINFORCE IT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE,
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, BRINGING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
SO FAR THIS WINTER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL AGREEMENT BREAKS
DOWN MORE SO TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED, AS THE INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE ENERGY BECOMES MORE
PROBLEMATIC BY THAT TIME.
VERY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING LOOKING LIKE THE COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES, AS WEST TO
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 8 MPH, COMBINE WITH ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO 5 ABOVE RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
RECOVER TO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH PERHAPS SOME FLAKES, DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO THE 20S, AS AT
LEAST RELATIVE WARM ADVECTION ENSUES IN THE LOW LEVELS. CLOUDS
WILL THEN CLEAR OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME SUB-ZERO ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY, PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS THAT WILL HAVE A BETTER SNOWPACK ESTABLISHED. ONE
MORE NIGHT OF SINGLE DIGITS IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE ON TAP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, BEFORE BETTER RETURN FLOW AND
PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION THREATENS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH
POPS, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES (20%) IN THE FORECAST. SATURDAY
LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY WARM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, STILL AVERAGING WELL BELOW NORMAL, BUT
HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL AT LEAST APPROACH NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
LATE JANUARY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2025
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BOUNCE DOWN TO VLIFR
AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING. THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL
BEGIN TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW IN THE I-64 CORRIDOR AFTER
SUNSET, WITH THE CHANGEOVER MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AFTER A PERIOD OF FAIRLY STEADY SNOW INTO THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY
MORNING, MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. OCCASIONALLY, GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, GENERALLY AT 5 TO 10 KTS - CONTINUING THAT WAY INTO THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-080-085>087-104-
111-114-116.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR KYZ079-083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
FOR KYZ088-110-113-118>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 AM EST MONDAY
FOR KYZ106>109-112-115-117.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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