966
FXUS63 KJKL 192130
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING
LATER TONIGHT. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN FAR EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA.
- SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN INTO THE EVENING.
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
EAST OF KENTUCKY NOW. THIS IS ENCOURAGING AN ARCTIC FRONT TO PUSH
DEEPER INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
OVER THE TERRAIN OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS MEANS UPSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUES LATE THIS AFTERNOON - LIKELY ENHANCED TO SOME EXTENT
FROM A FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN - AS THE STEADIER SNOW HAS
TRANSITIONED TO SHOWERS AND A POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS. THE
RADAR RETURNS HAVE BECOME MORE CELLULAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THAT
TRANSITION. OUTSIDE OF THE BETTER RETURNS, FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES MOST PLACES. THE CHILL OF THE DAY WILL GET WORSE AS
TEMPERATURES PEAKED NEAR FREEZING EARLY AND HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID
AND UPPER 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH AND GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 MPH
- CRUELLY ADDING TO THE CHILL. MEANWHILE, DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING
AND NOW RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH TO THE LOW 20S SOUTH. THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE
AT LEAST PAST SUNSET WHEN THE SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL STARTS TO DROP
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE CURRENT WET TREATED
AND UNTREATED ROADS WILL BE PRONE TO ICING UP AGAIN AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER TONIGHT.
THE MODELS, AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE SUITES, ARE STILL IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT THE INITIAL SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A VERY
LARGE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ITS 5H AXIS AND THE LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS PASSING CURRENTLY. FAST
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYING
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
AND BETTER ENERGY WITH IT DOES GEAR UP MONDAY NIGHT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SETTING UP FOR A RUN AT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE STILL QUITE SMALL MODEL SPREAD ALOFT MADE THE NBM A REASONABLE
STARTING POINT FOR THE FORECAST GRIDS, THOUGH WITH SOME
ADJUSTMENTS PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, CAMS GUIDANCE, AND
TYPICAL SNOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SENSIBLE WEATHER FEATURES OUR COLDEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR EVEN WITH
CLOUDS AND SNOW/FLURRIES LINGERING THROUGH THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
IT. AS A RESULT, WE ARE CONTINUING WITH THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
THROUGH NOON MONDAY WITH -5 TO -10 WIND CHILLS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FOR A TIME TONIGHT. THE SNOW WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA WITH LINGERING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND FOR ANY SQUALLS/BANDS THAT CONTINUE AFTER DARK.
FLURRIES WILL LINGER UNTIL THE CLOUDS BASICALLY BREAK UP LATE
TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON MONDAY
WILL BE INEFFECTUAL AT RAISING TEMPERATURES MUCH IN THE PARKED
ARCTIC AIR MASS AND HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING READINGS FROM CLIMBING
OUT OF THE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. NORMALLY, WE WOULD THEN BE
LOOKING AT BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES THAT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT THANKFULLY IT APPEARS THAT CLOUDS WILL SWOOP IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TO A MINIMUM AND IT MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE MILDER OF THESE NIGHTS
TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN FACT, WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE
SOME FLURRIES SNEAK OUT OF THE LOWER DECK OF THESE CLOUDS AROUND
DAWN, TUESDAY.
THE CHANGES TO THE NBM STARTING POINT CONSISTED PRIMARILY OF
TWEAKING THE POPS AND QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS PER THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND CAMS GUIDANCE BUT ALSO WITH HAND ADJUSTMENTS ON ACCOUNT OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL UPSLOPE SNOW NORMS. TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE NBM PDF THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER A LONG WAVE
TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF CONUS WITH A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY, THESE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING,
WHERE MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
AREA. WIND CHILLS OR "APPARENT TEMPERATURES" WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD
TO THOSE EXPOSED FOR LONG PERIODS, WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES BELOW
ZERO MONDAY MORNING, AND AS LOW AS -14F ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-64
CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY AREN'T EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
OUT OF THE TEENS. THIS IS 25 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15 MPH, OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE 2ND NIGHT IN A ROW. CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL LOWS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 20S. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH A
FEW PLACES NORTH OF I-64 POTENTIALLY DIPPING BELOW ZERO.
TUESDAY, A ROBUST TROUGH AXIS, EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC TO MEXICO, WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE STATE, BRINGING WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
FLURRIES. 500-MB HEIGHT RISES ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
AID IN HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW 20S. HOWEVER, WINDS
VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE AREA. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR A 3RD NIGHT IN
A ROW, WITH A RANGE OF 5 ABOVE TO FIVE BELOW ZERO. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN LIEU OF THE
EXITING SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S, RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S,
THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS
EVENINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOWS WILL FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT REMAIN
IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS QUIET WEATHER IS
OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPILLS OVER THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OUT OVER
WESTERN CANADA AND CONUS, DESCENDING INTO THE KENTUCKY AREA, FROM
MONTANA. THIS MAY LEAD TO SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD TREND BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH LOW TO MID 40S POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE MAIN SYSTEM LEAVING TO THE EAST
SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. THESE PM SNOW SHOWERS OR
SQUALLS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS, BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT THE AVIATION STATUS WILL TREND
MORE TOWARD MVFR LEVELS. FOLLOWING THIS, CLEARING SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS AT GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS TO BEGIN THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME NORTH NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS INTO THE EVENING, PERIODIC GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS/SQUALLS - THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE EVENING. WINDS THEN DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TOWARD DAWN, MONDAY.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-080-085>087-104-111-114-116.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ079-
083-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ088-110-113-
118>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ106>109-112-
115-117.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC/GREIF
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