359
FXUS63 KJKL 201124
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
624 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE BACK TOWARD
NORMAL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW BANDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
CURRENTLY FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SLOWLY WANING. WE SHOULD THUS EXPECT TO SEE A NOTABLE
DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS/BANDS OF SNOW BY
DAYBREAK.
SKIES WILL CLEAR IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST TREND
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WILL
BE TRICKY, WITH GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE LOWER TEENS FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THIS MORNING,
WHILE SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR 30 BELOW NORMAL FOR WHAT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE COLDEST WEEK
OF THE YEAR.
WEAK WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH MODELS
SUGGESTING SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN SOME SNOW SQUALLS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALVES OF THE CWA. HAVE THUS
INTRODUCED 15 POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THESE AREAS. THE
GFS SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DOES DEPICT VALUES AS HIGH AS 3.5
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGES.
CLOUD COVER AND WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY KEEP LOWS AND HIGHS
TUESDAY SLIGHTLY MORE MODERATED THAN FOR MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS TONIGHT NOT MUCH COLDER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS, POTENTIALLY, WITH
HIGHS FORECAST INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
TUESDAY EVENING, A FEW FLURRIES MAY LINGER, BUT SHOULD QUICKLY TRAIL
OFF HEADING LATER IN THE EVENING. A TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EAST OF THE STATE WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEMS DEPARTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH A GENERAL RANGE OF 5 ABOVE TO
FIVE BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS, OR APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO, AND LONG EXPOSURE TO THE OUTDOORS SHOULD BE
LIMITED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL RISE IN LIEU OF THE
EXITING SYSTEM FROM TUESDAY. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED EACH DAY,
WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S, THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS EVENINGS, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL FINALLY BREAK OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT
REMAIN IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS QUIET WEATHER
IS OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPILLS SOUTH FROM WESTERN CANADA. THIS MAY
LEAD TO A CHANCE OF FLURRIES EARLY, WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER
IN THE DAY, FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
NEXT WEEKEND, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT THE NEXT SYSTEM
PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, ACROSS EASTERN
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA BEFORE CONTINUING NORTH AND EAST OVER KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS SATURDAY OUT AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO POTENTIALLY
UPPER 40S, WITH LOWS FALLING AROUND OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AT
NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND WILL EVENTUALLY
DIMINISH BY 18Z OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL MAINLY
IMPACT KSJS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS, THOUGH
A BRIEF REDUCTION TO IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY VIZ) CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. OVERALL, HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CLEAR SKIES BY 00Z
THIS EVENING. HIGH- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE
AFTER 03Z FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE, BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO A STEADY 3 TO 7
KTS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 5 KTS
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...CMC
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