109
FXUS63 KJKL 160901
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THE ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING EVENT.
- RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING, WITH WIDELY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM 7
AM TO 7 PM TONIGHT.
- LINGERING MOISTURE FREEZING TO ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL WHERE ROAD TREATMENTS HAVE BEEN WASHED AWAY THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGH TERRAIN COULD
BRING AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF 1-2" IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS AND
20-40% CHANCES OF MODERATE WINTER STORM IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FINAL CONVECTIVE RAINBAND OF THE EVENT
PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45
MPH PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS UP TO TWO INCHES, WILL FALL BY THE TIME THIS LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT ARE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN THE FURTHEST NORTH/NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AS THIS RAIN FALLS ONTO SATURATED SOILS
AND INTO BASINS WHERE SOME RIVER GAGES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE (KENTUCKY, NORTH FORK AND SOUTH FORK
KENTUCKY, LEVISA FORK, AND CUMBERLAND RIVERS ESPECIALLY). FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ONGOING WITH
REPORTS OF WATER RESCUES AND NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS THE
AREA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 30-40 MPH, INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ADD AN ADDITIONAL THREAT
OF BLOWING OVER WEAKLY ROOTED TREES AND BRANCHES IN SATURATED
SOILS, PERHAPS CAUSING A FEW ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LOW 30S, THE
SECONDARY PRECIP BAND WILL BE SNOW, WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCH RANGE. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOW-LEVELS, ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
KY/VA BORDER. WITH ACCUMULATIONS POTENTIALLY IN THE ONE TO TWO
INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID-WEEK WINTRY SYSTEM, WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TOTALS IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
NBM PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL TOTALS:
>1": 65-95%
>2": 65-90%
>3": 50-75%
>4": 36-60%
>6": 15-45%
PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS THE FOLLOWING
IMPACT POTENTIALS:
AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS: 50-80%
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS: 20-40%
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY, THEN IN THE
20S ON THURSDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS), FOLLOWED BY
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 10PM EST SAT FEB 15 2025
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MULTIPLE
AVIATION IMPACTS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY. A LARGE BAND
OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BRING MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE (AROUND
20%) OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST
OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY MORNING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE STEADIER SNOW WILL THEN TAPER TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR BECOMING
PREVAILING. BRISK AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
SHORT TERM...WFO SGF
LONG TERM...WFO SGF
AVIATION...WFO SGF
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