060
FXUS63 KJKL 161402
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
902 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY
BEHIND OUTGOING MORNING RAINFALL. NUMEROUS AREA RIVERS FORECAST
IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGES.
- RAIN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW LATE THIS MORNING, WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM TONIGHT.
- LINGERING MOISTURE FREEZING TO ROADWAYS COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL WHERE ROAD TREATMENTS HAVE BEEN WASHED AWAY THIS EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGH TERRAIN COULD
BRING A RISK OF UP TO 1-2" IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK.
THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF MINOR WINTER STORM IMPACTS AND
20-40% CHANCES OF MODERATE WINTER STORM IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SHARP COLD FRONT IS SWEEPING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH A NARROW
LINE OF CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS. AT 855 AM, THE COLD FRONT WAS
JUST WEST OF A SANDY HOOK TO JACKSON TO MIDDLESBORO LINE. WIND
GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY GUSTED TO BETWEEN 30 AND 45 MPH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, THOUGH A GUST TO AROUND 60 MPH WAS REPORTED AT KLOZ AS
THE LINE PASSED. TEMPERATURES ARE CRASHING INTO THE 30S JUST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS WELL. LOOKING UPSTREAM, A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
IS PIVOTING NORTHEASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE A FEW FLAKES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THE
HEAVIEST PART OF THIS BAND WILL LIFT INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND
BRUSH OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
UPSTREAM WEBCAMS SHOW AT LEAST AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION UNDER THE
STRONGER PARTS OF THE BAND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE FINAL CONVECTIVE RAINBAND OF THE EVENT
PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY, WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 35-45
MPH PREVIOUSLY REPORTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS UP TO TWO INCHES, WILL FALL BY THE TIME THIS LINE AND THE
COLD FRONT ARE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS
IN THE FURTHEST NORTH/NORTHWEST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AS THIS RAIN FALLS ONTO SATURATED SOILS
AND INTO BASINS WHERE SOME RIVER GAGES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE (KENTUCKY, NORTH FORK AND SOUTH FORK
KENTUCKY, LEVISA FORK, AND CUMBERLAND RIVERS ESPECIALLY). FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS AND RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN ONGOING WITH
REPORTS OF WATER RESCUES AND NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS THE
AREA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY, UP TO 30-40 MPH, INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PASSES. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY ADD AN ADDITIONAL THREAT
OF BLOWING OVER WEAKLY ROOTED TREES AND BRANCHES IN SATURATED
SOILS, PERHAPS CAUSING A FEW ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES. WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE LOW 30S, THE
SECONDARY PRECIP BAND WILL BE SNOW, WITH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCH RANGE. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM SUNDAY.
AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES IN THE LOW-LEVELS, ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
KY/VA BORDER. WITH ACCUMULATIONS POTENTIALLY IN THE ONE TO TWO
INCH RANGE WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED AMOUNTS, AN ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A MID-WEEK WINTRY SYSTEM, WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TOTALS IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME.
NBM PROBABILITY OF SNOWFALL TOTALS:
>1": 65-95%
>2": 65-90%
>3": 50-75%
>4": 36-60%
>6": 15-45%
PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS THE FOLLOWING
IMPACT POTENTIALS:
AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS: 50-80%
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS: 20-40%
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY, THEN IN THE
20S ON THURSDAY. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE TEENS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS), FOLLOWED BY
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS IN THE
30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BRING MVFR AND BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AS THEY PASS. BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT.
THE RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW LATER THIS MORNING WITH IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP WRAPS AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. STEADIER SNOW WILL THEN TAPER TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR BECOMING
PREVAILING. BRISK AND GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY. GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE COMMON.
JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106-108-111.
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...WFO SGF
LONG TERM...WFO SGF
AVIATION...WFO SGF
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